566
FXUS65 KSLC 291004
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
404 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODIC
PRECIPITATION AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE BEEHIVE
STATE FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT STORM OF THE
PERIOD IS EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH
IMPACTFUL SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF UTAH.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ACTIVE
WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND THE
BULK OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. EARLY MORNING UPPER AIR AND
SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATES GENERAL TROUGHING REMAINS ACROSS THE
WEST. A RELATIVELY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CROSSING THE WESTERN
GREAT BASIN. SEVERAL ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE NOTED
UPSTREAM, ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SPLIT OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST FORCING SHIFTING BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH
OF THE BEEHIVE STATE.
GIVEN THE SPLITTING TROUGH, THE FRONTAL BAND IS LESS DEVELOPED IN
THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
LIKELY RELATED TO EMBEDDED CONVECTION WITHIN AND BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH THIS AFTERNOON.
ANY SNOW TOTALS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE JET CIRCULATION WILL CROSS THE REGION.
OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER, DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN AROUND TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z MONDAY)
KEY MESSAGES...
* ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH THE HEAVIEST RATES LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE (>70%) OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
EXCEEDING 9 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN UTAH MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE WESTERN UINTAS, COTTONWOODS, AND TONY GROVE.
* ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS UTAH WILL COME
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THERE STILL REMAINS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN.
* THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (15-30%) OF VALLEY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
EXCEEDING 1 INCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE, WITH A COLD FRONT
BRINGING MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN/SNOW TO MAINLY
NORTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. THESE MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITHIN SOMEWHAT
WARM AND BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS FLOW VEERS MORE WESTERLY
THEN NORTHWESTERLY, A COOLER, WETTER AIR MASS WILL BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
WHILE VALLEYS WILL SEE RAIN TO START, 700-MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING
TO -10C TO -12C WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO SNOW BY
MID-DAY TUESDAY...THOUGH HIGH SUN ANGLE AND WARM ANTECEDENT
SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO LESS THAN AN INCH
IN MOST LOWER ELEVATION VALLEYS. IN THE MOUNTAINS, EXPECT BROADLY
6-10" OF SNOW, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE CENTRAL
WASATCH.
BEYOND TUESDAY, CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN DECREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY. WHILE MOST MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL FAVORS A TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN US WITH VARIOUS WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE MEAN
FLOW, THERE ARE STILL 30% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT FAVOR MORE
ZONAL FLOW, EVEN BECOMING SOMEWHAT ANTICYCLONIC WHICH WOULD LIMIT
ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA MID WEEK. GUIDANCE HONES IN A BIT
LATER IN THE WEEK ON MORE OF A TROUGH PATTERN, THOUGH A LARGE
DIFFERENCE EXISTS BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC MODELS, WHICH SHOW A
DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US, AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE, WHICH SHOWS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH. TIME WILL TELL
HOW THIS PATTERN PLAYS OUT, THOUGH FOR NOW, EXPECT MODESTLY ACTIVE
WEATHER TO CONTINUE.
AVIATION...KSLC
LIGHT, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
UNTIL AT LEAST 15Z, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN AROUND 15-16Z, BECOMING STRONGER WITH
GUSTS TO 20KTS AFTER 18-19Z WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 15Z, WITH THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE AND CHANCES FOR MVFR (~70% CHANCE) OR IFR (~20% CHANCE)
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 20-00Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING A TRANSITION TO BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER 18-20Z, DIMINISHING BY
04Z IN MOST AREAS. HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE MVFR OR EVEN IFR
VIS WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY PREVAILING DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
N-UT/SW-WY. WINDS MAY BE OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC NEAR
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN UT. FINALLY, THERE IS A 15-20% CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND ROUGHLY KHCR-KPUC-KRIF DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
KRUSE/CUNNINGHAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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