091
FXUS65 KSLC 292155
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
355 PM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODIC
PRECIPITATION AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE BEEHIVE
STATE FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT STORM OF THE
PERIOD IS EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH
IMPACTFUL SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF UTAH.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WELL INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. CURRENTLY, NUMEROUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BUBBLING UP ACROSS THE CWA AS SHOWN ON SATELLITE.
WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5-8C/KM AND 250-500J/KG OF
MLCAPE, A FEW STRONGER GUSTS AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL APPEAR POSSIBLE
WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS PER MESOANALYSIS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY GIVEN AMPLE INSTABILITY WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS WELL AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE AREA. FOLLOWING THIS, RIDGING WILL
BUILD IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON BRINGING A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE
ACTION.
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SNOW IS
FAVORED IN THIS REGIME, SUCH AS THE COTTONWOODS AND UINTAS.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SPARSE AS THIS SYSTEM IS
RELATIVELY MOISTURE STARVED, WITH GENERALLY 2-4" EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
UTAH MOUNTAINS AND AROUND 6-8" ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORED
LOCATIONS. POPS AREAWIDE BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRAVERSES EAST WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN RESULTING IN LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AREAWIDE.
WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE, SEVERAL SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS APPEAR
EVIDENT RIDING ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK A
FEW MORE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS
WILL LIKELY BE QUITE SPARSE AS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE APPEARS PRESENT
WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND A TRACE OF SNOW.
ON MONDAY MORNING, RIDGING BEGINS TO TRAVERSE EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. A 700MB
ENHANCEMENT IN FLOW AROUND ~40KTS APPEARS TO MOVE IN NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD WITH A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE, WITH GUSTY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WEST DESERT APPEARING POSSIBLE MONDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/6AM MONDAY)
KEY MESSAGES...
* ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH THE HEAVIEST RATES LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE (>70%) OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
EXCEEDING 9 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN UTAH MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE WESTERN UINTAS, COTTONWOODS, AND TONY GROVE.
* SNOW IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY (>50% CHANCE) ACROSS THE
NORTHERN UTAH VALLEYS TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME, MOST LIKELY RANGE FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS RANGE FROM A TRACE TO 2", WITH 2-5" FOR BENCHES.
* ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS UTAH WILL COME
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THERE STILL REMAINS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN.
* THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (15-30%) OF VALLEY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
EXCEEDING 1 INCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
AN ACTIVE PERIOD PUNCTUATED BY PLENTIFUL PRECIPITATION (ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN UTAH AND SW WYOMING) AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LONG-TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. KICKING THINGS OFF ON MONDAY, A ROBUST MID-LEVEL
JET IS FORECAST TO PUNCH INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA AROUND A
CLOSED LOW CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE OR/WA COASTLINE. AS THIS LOW
MOVES EASTWARD AND OPENS UP INTO A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TUESDAY, SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY, WITH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF 35-45 MPH DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE WEST DESERT, SW UTAH AND CENTRAL UTAH VALLEYS. THERE IS ~50%
CHANCE OF GUSTS REACHING 45 MPH, AND WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. PATCHY BLOWING DUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL
DEVELOP NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER AND THE UINTAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN
THIS INITIAL WARMER PHASE OF THE SYSTEM, SNOW LEVELS WILL BE 6500 TO
7000 FOOT RANGE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. HOWEVER, AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES, A COLD FRONT WILL MARCH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
CAUSING SNOW LEVELS TO CRASH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. CURRENT
MOST LIKELY FORECAST SUGGESTS SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO VALLEY FLOORS
ACROSS NORTHERN VALLEYS AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING, AND CENTRAL
VALLEYS LATER TUESDAY MORNING. GIVEN FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
COMBINED WITH MOIST UPSLOPE NW FLOW THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, VALLEY
SNOW MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SLOWER
MODELS LINGER SNOW THROUGH THE DAY. IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, SNOW
WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF.
CURRENT MOST LIKELY RANGES FOR SNOW ARE IN THE TRACE TO 2" RANGE FOR
VALLEYS, WITH 2-5" FOR BENCHES. VALLEY ACCUMULATIONS HAVE THE LEAST
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY, AS LIGHT SNOWFALL RATES WILL STRUGGLE TO
OVERCOME WARM ANTECEDENT GROUND TEMPERATURES. A LONGER PERIOD OF
HIGHER RATES WILL AID IN ACCUMULATION EFFICIENCY AND ALLOW AMOUNTS
TO FALL INTO THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL AS THE EVENT APPROACHES. CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST RANGES (25TH-75TH PERCENTILE) ARE FROM 5-10" ACROSS THE
WASATCH BACK TO 6-12" FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EXCEPT THE UPPER
COTTONWOODS, WHERE 10-22" REPRESENT THIS RANGE.
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY, WITH THIS TROUGH POTENTIALLY EVOLVING INTO A
CLOSED LOW AND DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY LATE IN
THE WEEK. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD WITH REGARDS TO HOW THIS
SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE, THUS THERE IS A WIDE RANGE IN POTENTIAL
PRECIPITATION OUTCOMES. ONE THING THAT IS CLEAR IS THAT VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS COUPLED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.
AVIATION...KSLC
GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
ROUGHLY 00Z SUNDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
WINDS BECOME MORE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THEREAFTER,
EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 08-10Z SUNDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC MVFR CIGS TO THE
TERMINAL THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. SHOWERS TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A WEAK WAVE
PROGRESSING THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH WILL ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A 30%
CHANCE TO IMPACT KSLC.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
A COLD FRONT SUPPORT
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TRANSITION TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT WILL BECOME LIGHTER OVERNIGHT. GREATEST
FORCING IS LOCATED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN UTAH, WHERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS AT KCDC AND KBCE THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.
CONDITIONS DRY OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AIRSPACE AFTER
02Z SUNDAY, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THROUGH ROUGHLY 06Z SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, BEFORE ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WORSTER
LONG TERM...ADESMET
AVIATION...WHITLAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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