816
FXUS65 KSLC 301025
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
425 AM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODIC
PRECIPITATION AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE BEEHIVE
STATE FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT STORM OF THE
PERIOD IS EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH
IMPACTFUL SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF UTAH.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY)
AN ACTIVE AND CHAOTIC SPRING
PATTERN CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IMPACTING UTAH IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS APPROACHING WARNING
THRESHOLDS FOR SNOW.
EARLY MORNING UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATES A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE NOTED ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND/OR EMBEDDED IN A RELATIVELY STRONG JET.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN.
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CROSS
THE REGION. STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SHIFT INTO MUCH OF THE
STATE MONDAY, WITH 700MB FLOW EXCEEDING 50KTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN UTAH. WHILE THERE IS SOME THREAT OF GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45
MPH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN UTAH (ABOUT 30-40% CHANCE),
THE STRONGEST 700MB FLOW COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING
WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN UTAH. FOR NOW, ISSUED WIND
ADVISORIES FOR THE SWELL, WESTERN CANYONLANDS AND LAKE POWELL
AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THOSE WITH PLANS ON LAKE
POWELL SHOULD BE READY FOR DIFFICULT CONDITIONS.
AS THE JET MAX CONTINUES TO SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA, A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE INTERIOR WEST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
EXPECT THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO CROSS INTO NORTHERN UTAH
MONDAY EVENING; THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO VALLEY FLOORS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO MOST WESTERN UTAH VALLEYS. THE HEAVIEST
SNOW...APPROACHING WARNING THRESHOLDS IN SOME LOCATIONS...WILL BE
BE FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF UTAH AND POTENTIALLY THE WASATCH
BACK. THE PROBABILITY OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING WARNING
AMOUNTS IS AROUND 30-40%, WHICH PRECLUDES THE ISSUANCE OF ANY
WINTER STORM WATCHES WITH THIS PACKAGE. DAY SHIFT WILL COORDINATE
WITH RELEVANT PARTNERS AND REASSESS.
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A MORE SHOWERY MODE, MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT DO WELL
IN WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE WEST BECOMES QUITE CHAOTIC
TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH THE MOST PROBABLE
OUTCOME THE CONTINUED THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY)
WHILE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG-TERM PERIOD, IMPACTS WILL BE RELATIVELY
MINOR AS A VERY BROAD TROUGH SITS OVER THE WESTERN US. BY
WEDNESDAY, THIS TROUGH WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE, WITH A COOL AIR
MASS OVERHEAD YIELDING 700-MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -9C TO -11C.
VARIOUS WEAK WAVES COULD PASS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY, WITH THE FIRST OF WHICH BRINGING 1-5" OF SNOW TO
UTAH'S MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH SYNOPTIC DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE
ARE UNIMPRESSIVE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, THUS PRECIPITATION CAN BE
CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST POPS AND LOW QPF OVERALL. TEMPERATURES
NEAR 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE CORE OF THE
TROUGH WEAKENS/WARMS.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DECREASES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW SOMEWHERE OVER S-UT OR AZ (65% OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS), WITH THE REMAINING SCENARIOS FAVORING MORE OF
AN OPEN WAVE OR EVEN A SHALLOW RIDGE. IF THE CLOSED LOW FORMS,
DEPENDING ON IF IT SETS UP IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION, THIS COULD
POTENTIALLY RESULT IN MORE PRECIPITATION FOR SE-UT AND/OR A CHANCE
FOR SOME ENHANCED CANYON WINDS ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT NEXT
WEEKEND. STILL, THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST THIS FAR OUT, AND A LOT COULD STILL CHANGE.
AVIATION...KSLC
LIGHT, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING, LASTING UNTIL ROUGHLY 20-21Z WHEN WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO TRANSITION TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY (15% CHANCE THAT WINDS
STAY SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY). LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY BETWEEN 21-00Z, BUT WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIMPACTFUL
ASIDE FROM INTERMITTENT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT
AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN THIS MORNING, BECOMING SOMEWHAT BREEZY UP TO
20-25KTS OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AFTER 18Z, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
AFTER 20Z, WITH MORE COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. MOST AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH PERIODIC MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION, THOUGH
HIGHER ELEVATION SITES COULD SEE PERIODIC MVFR CIGS. LOCALLY GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH ARE
POSSIBLE.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR
UTZ121-130-131.
WY...NONE.
KRUSE/CUNNINGHAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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