814
FXUS65 KSLC 312212
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
412 PM MDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG, GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE INTO THE
EVENING, TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS VALLEY
RAIN AND SNOW AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO PORTIONS OF UTAH.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z/6AM WEDNESDAY)
A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH
THAT HAS BEEN OFF THE PACNW COAST IS EJECTING INLAND, BRINGING
STRONG, GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW TO SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND PORTIONS OF
UTAH.
UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE
VALUES OF ROUGHLY 100-300 J/KG THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND
NORTHERN UTAH AND DAYTIME WARMING HAS RESULTED IN CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS THAT HAVE PRODUCED RAIN, SNOW, GRAUPEL, AND LIGHTNING IN
VARIOUS PLACES. MEANWHILE, SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 50
MPH HAVE BEEN ESTABLISHED MUCH OF THE DAY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
UTAH.
A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS UTAH
FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY. THAT WILL COME WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES AND SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO VALLEY
FLOORS EARLY TUESDAY. FOR MOST VALLEYS, THIS WILL BE AS
PRECIPITATION IS TAPERING OFF, BUT A RANGE FROM WET ROADS TO ROADS
WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY. FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR OF
NORTHERN UTAH, MOST ACCUMULATION WILL BE ON EAST BENCHES.
MOUNTAIN ROUTES, INCLUDING THE COTTONWOODS AND SUMMITS ON I-15
WILL LIKELY HAVE WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS FROM LATER MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
LAKE-ENHANCED SHOWERS OFF THE GREAT SALT LAKE WILL LIKELY ALLOW
FOR SNOW TO CONTINUE IN A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW FOR NORTHERN SALT
LAKE, DAVIS, AND WEBER COUNTIES AND ADJACENT MOUNTAINS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MOST SNOWFALL THROUGH THE EVENT WILL BE IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, WITH GENERALLY 6-12 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS FOR THE UPPER COTTONWOODS. SIMILAR TOTALS ARE LIKELY IN
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. FOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS, TOTALS WILL BE
MUCH LIGHTER WITH LOCALLY MORE SNOWFALL AROUND BRIAN HEAD.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/6AM WEDNESDAY)
THE PERSISTENT AREA OF
LONGWAVE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT ON WEDNESDAY, WITH ONE
SHORTWAVE PROJECTED TO EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WHILE THE
OTHER DIGS DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEFORE CLOSING OFF OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SHOWERS TO REINVIGORATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH, CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AS THE
LOW SLOWLY SLIDES EASTWARD. SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IS ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WASATCH BACK AND CENTRAL UTAH MOUNTAINS ON
THURSDAY, AS EASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION
ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW EJECTS EASTWARD ON THURSDAY, BUT ANOTHER WAVE
DROPPING DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY QUICKLY TAKES ITS PLACE,
CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
AGAIN PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH.
WE FINALLY SEE THE PARADE OF TROUGHS COME TO AN END ON SATURDAY, AS
A RIDGE NUDGES THE CLOSED LOW OUT OF THE REGION. THERE IS LESS
CONFIDENCE AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS 25% OF CLUSTER
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN US
BY MONDAY. THE OTHER 75% OF MEMBERS SUPPORT CONTINUED RIDGING ACROSS
THE REGION. EITHER WAY, ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A GRADUALLY WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...KSLC
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA KEEPING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD LAST
THROUGH 11-12Z BEFORE WINDS TAKE ON A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT. -RA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 09-11Z BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO -SN. -SN
WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 16Z BEFORE BECOMING SCATTERED IN NATURE,
TAPERING OFF ENTIRELY IN THE FOLLOWING HOURS.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING SOUTH RESULTING IN ABRUPT NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND SHIFTS ACROSS
ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. MOST SITES, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KSGU AND KCDC, ARE CURRENTLY SEEING -RA OR WILL BE SHORTLY. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO -SN ALONG OR CLOSELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AS IT PASSES THROUGH. -SN WILL LAST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE
BECOMING SCATTERED, THEN DISSIPATING SOON AFTER.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR UTZ108.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ110>113-
117.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ115-116.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT
TUESDAY FOR UTZ116.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT
TUESDAY FOR UTZ118.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ119-121>123-
126>131.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR WYZ021.
SHORT TERM...WILSON
LONG TERM...WHITLAM
AVIATION...WORSTER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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