331
FXUS65 KSLC 010956
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
356 AM MDT TUE APR 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN LATER IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY)
A LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO SETTLE INTO THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTH OF CEDAR CITY, SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST
WITH TIME. THIS COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN UTAH
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
MEANWHILE, ADDITIONAL SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN UTAH, ENHANCING SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE GREAT SALT LAKE. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING,
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND APRIL SUN ANGLE COMBINE TO BRING A SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE STATE.
GOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE ON TRACK...HOWEVER...GIVEN
UTAH WILL LARGELY SHIFT INTO AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH, CLIPPED THE END
TIME OF THE MOUNTAINS TO 8 PM TONIGHT RATHER THAN 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE EJECTING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SIDE OF
THIS LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY WEAKENING BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WHILE RATES MAY BRIEFLY EXCEED 1 INCH AN HOUR AT TIMES FOR THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS, TOTALS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A FEW OF THE CAMS ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP A
LAKE EFFECT BAND OFF THE GSL TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 06Z NAM NEST WITH
A BRIEF "BAND" BETWEEN 06-09Z...THE 06Z HRRR WITH A MUCH LONGER
DURATION BAND. GUIDANCE FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF UTAH BASED ON THE
GFS SUGGESTS PROBS LESS THAN 10% FOR LAKE EFFECT, PARTLY OWING TO
THE DRY LOW LEVELS. THIS MAY BE WHY THE "LAKE BAND" FORMS ON THE
NAM NEST AND THEN QUICKLY SHOOTS OFF THE LAKE TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST. FOR NOW, HAVE SOME ISOLATED POPS, GIVEN THE LOW
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z THURSDAY)
WARM WEATHER LOVERS, WE HAVE
GOOD NEWS. AFTER A FEW MORE DAYS OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THURSDAY AND SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND, RESULTING IN A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND.
AT THE START OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD ON THURSDAY, A BROAD
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN US. WITH
RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES RESULTING FROM THE CORE OF THE TROUGH
OVERHEAD, EXPECT INSTABILITY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOONS, PARTICULARLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH ON THURSDAY, A WEAK WAVE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
SYNOPTIC LIFT FOR AROUND 2-6" OF SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS, AS WELL AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, A RIDGE WILL NUDGE INTO THE GREAT
BASIN, WITH SUBSIDENCE TAKING OVER AS EARLY AS SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE FROM AROUND 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
THURSDAY TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON MONDAY/TUESDAY MIGHT SLIGHTLY SLOW THIS
WARMING, THOUGH NOT BY MUCH. EITHER WAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
LOOKING MUCH MORE SPRING-LIKE NEXT WEEK, REACHING THE UPPER-60S
ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT AND MOST OTHER VALLEYS, UPPER-50S IN THE
WASATCH BACK, AND EVEN NEARING 80F IN ST. GEORGE. A BRIEF LOOK AT
THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN SUGGESTS A MORE STAGNANT PATTERN MOVING
FORWARD, WITH THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FAVORING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION...KSLC
WIND DIRECTION IS LOW CONFIDENCE THIS MORNING
UNTIL ~17-18Z WHEN WNW WINDS WILL PREVAIL. BEFORE THEN, WNW WINDS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO PERSIST, WITH THE ALTERNATE SCENARIO BEING
LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY (40% CHANCE). A FEW LAKE-EFFECT SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE 14Z, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AFTER 18-19Z. INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE, THOUGH THERE IS A LOW (10%) CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS
WITHIN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...WITH A 10% CHANCE OF LIGHTNING.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY TREND DOWNWARDS THROUGH THE MORNING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN UT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP
AFTER 18Z, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL UT AND SOUTHWEST WY.
SHOWERS WILL BRING PREDOMINATELY VFR-MVFR CONDITIONS, WITH THE
HEAVIEST OF SHOWERS POTENTIALLY PRODUCING IFR CONDITIONS. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST
AREAS, WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS TO 20-30KTS ACROSS EASTERN VALLEYS.
KEVW MAY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
OWING TO FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ108.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
UTZ110>113-117.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
UTZ116.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR UTZ118.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ021.
KRUSE/CUNNINGHAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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