754
FXUS65 KSLC 190955
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
355 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
A PROGRESSIVE BACK AND FORTH PATTERN OF GENERALLY WEAK
SYSTEMS IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY WARM, RETURNING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
AT MOST LOCATIONS BY MIDWEEK.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/6PM MONDAY)
AREA RADARS
FINALLY SHOWING QUIETER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION AS
OUR LATE SEASON COLD STORM CONTINUES TO DEPART. GOES-W SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO PIVOT
DEEPER INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, WITH CORRESPONDING NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS RGB SHOWING CLOUDS MORE OR LESS CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST
UTAH AT THIS POINT. STRONGER CANYON WINDS APPEAR TO NOT HAVE
MATERIALIZED OUTSIDE OF SOME VERY LOCALIZED GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH
RANGE, SO FOR MANY, THE COOL TEMPERATURES AROUND 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL ARE WHAT REMAIN OF THE EVENT.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT INTO/THROUGH THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. INCREASED DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE WILL PRECLUDE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL, LEAD TO A PERIOD
OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES, AND HELP TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES
BACK UP SEVERAL DEGREES. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL GENERALLY
PEAK A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL, THE STRONGER APRIL SUN SHOULD STILL
MAKE IT FEEL LIKE A PRETTY PLEASANT DAY OUT THERE ALL THINGS
CONSIDERED.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE SLIPS OUT
AND IS REPLACED BY A SUBTLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING THROUGH
OVERHEAD. MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO LARGELY BE
CONFINED TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS, AND GIVEN MEAGER SYNOPTIC
FORCING, THINKING WE'LL ONLY SEE A SMALL UPTICK IN SHOWER
POTENTIAL, MOSTLY FOR THE HIGH NORTHERN TERRAIN. EVEN WITH ANY
SHOWERS, ANY WATER/SNOW WILL BE INSUBSTANTIAL. FOR MOST, THE MAIN
IMPACTS FROM THE TROUGH WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER CLOUD
COVER, AND MILDER OVERNIGHT TEMPS DUE IN PART TO THESE CLOUDS
HELPING TO LIMIT THE EFFECTS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.
FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT MORE ZONAL, WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF ANOTHER
VERY SUBTLE RIDGE, FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. H7 TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A
GOOD BIT WITH THE SHIFT IN FLOW, AND AFTERNOON CORRESPONDING
AFTERNOON HIGHS INCREASE QUITE A BIT, WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING
VALUES BACK NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
THE PROGRESSIVE BACK AND FORTH PATTERN OF FAIRLY WEAK FORECAST
ELEMENTS CONTINUES SUNDAY EVENING ON INTO MONDAY AS A GRAZING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND PASSES BY THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST REGION. MOISTURE DOES NOT APPEAR IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS
SYSTEM, BUT THERE IS A BIT STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND PVA,
YIELDING A BIT MORE FORCING FOR ASCENT. AS A RESULT, THE NORTHERN
THIRD OR SO OF THE FORECAST REGION WILL SEE A GENERAL INCREASE IN
MOSTLY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THEN ALSO BE NUDGED
SOUTHWARD MONDAY MORNING, POTENTIALLY PROVIDING THE CONVERGENCE
NEEDED FOR A BIT OF AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE, THOUGH IT'LL BE FURTHER
WEAKENING BEFORE IT EVENTUALLY STALLS OUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS
CENTRAL UTAH. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS AT NORTHERN
AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT FALLING A FEW DEGREES. TOTAL WATER AMOUNTS
FROM THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE VERY
SUBSTANTIAL... GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.05" OR SO FOR LOW ELEVATION
AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR OR SO, A GENERAL 0.05-0.15"
FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, AND LOCALLY UP TO 0.25" OR SO IN
PORTIONS OF THE BEAR RIVER RANGE. WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND
7500-8000 FT MSL AND CORRESPONDINGLY POOR SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS,
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINIMAL.
LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY/6PM MONDAY)
TRANSIENT RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY
FOR A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL CLIP NORTHERN UTAH WITH
ITS AXIS ON MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE WILL
CONTINUE SLIDING SOUTH AS THE TROUGH SLIDES EAST WHICH WILL
UNFORTUNATELY PUT A BRIEF PAUSE ON THE STATE-WIDE WARMUP THAT
APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT MONDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DECREASING MARKEDLY AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION.
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY FEATURING A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
WITHIN THE FLOW. THIS WILL YIELD SCATTERED AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS, THOUGH THEY WILL NOT BE SUBSTANTIAL WITH
RESPECT TO ACCUMULATIONS AS THE AIRMASS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL ALSO RESULT IN A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WINDS CLOCKING TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL YIELD VALLEY TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
70-80 DEGREES WITH LOWER WASHINGTON COUNTY LIKELY SEEING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
AS WE ENTER THE WEEKEND, MODEL CONSENSUS APPEARS QUITE FAVORABLE
FOR A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH TO PUSH IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY EVENING. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
BE QUITE DIFFLUENT ALOFT WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW CLOCKING TO
SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS PATTERN WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OUR VALLEYS AND
SNOW SHOWERS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE IS
ADVECTED OVER THE AREA. AS OF NOW, ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE IMPACTFUL IN NATURE.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY IS EXPECTED AROUND 09Z THIS
MORNING BEFORE CLOCKING TO NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 18Z. LATER IN THE
EVENING, WINDS WILL CLOCK BACK TO SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE DIURNAL
PATTERN PERSISTS.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 18-20KTS MAY DEVELOP AT KCDC AROUND 18Z, SUBSIDING AROUND
03Z.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WARTHEN/WORSTER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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