757
FXUS65 KSLC 200925
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
325 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN WEAK GRAZING
SYSTEMS BRINGING LIMITED IMPACTS/PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY TO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. DESPITE THE ACTIVE PATTERN, DAY TO
DAY TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY FAVORED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z/6AM TUESDAY)
A VERY WEAK AND LARGELY
MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS TRANSLATING THROUGH
OVERHEAD HERE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AREA RADARS ARE PICKING UP ON
SOME HIGH BASED ECHOES, BUT BASED UPON LITTLE TO NO OBSERVING
SITES INDICATING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION, ASSUMING VERY
LITTLE OF THIS IS ACTUALLY MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. COULD STILL
POTENTIALLY SEE A FEW SPITS OF DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER
NORTHERN TERRAIN, BUT THE SYSTEM REMAINS VERY NON-IMPACTFUL.
AFTER SUNRISE, THIS SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING THE REGION, LEAVING
LITTLE EVIDENCE OF ITS PRESENCE OUTSIDE OF SOME GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES. DEEPER LAYER FLOW WILL TREND MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE DAY,
AND H7 TEMPERATURES WILL IN TURN GRADUALLY WARM. AS A RESULT,
SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL JUMP BY AROUND 5-10 DEGREES IN
COMPARISON TO SATURDAY, AND GIVEN THE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
STRONGER APRIL SUN ANGLE, IT'LL UNDOUBTEDLY FEEL MORE MILD TO
MOST.
SUNDAY EVENING ONWARD INTO MONDAY WILL SEE A GRAZING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACH AND PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST REGION. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE, BUT
OVERALL SYNOPTIC FORCING LOOKS A BIT BETTER IN COMPARISON TO THE
WEAK SYSTEM CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE AREA. SHOWER CHANCES
WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES IN,
PARTICULARLY ALONG AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL
BE ADVANCING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH BY AROUND SUNRISE
MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE GRAZING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, AND IN
TURN THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS
CENTRAL UTAH, PRECIPITATION IS NOT REALLY EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN
UTAH. TOTAL WATER AMOUNTS HAVE CHANGED MINIMALLY FROM PRIOR
FORECASTS. MAYBE UP TO 0.05" OR SO FOR LOW ELEVATION AREAS MOSTLY
ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR, AROUND 0.05-0.15" FOR THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, AND LOCALLY A BIT MORE (UP TO
0.25" OR SO) FOR THE BEAR RIVER RANGE. WHILE SOME COOLER POST-
FRONTAL H7 TEMPS WILL SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOW LEVELS AND IMPROVE SNOW
TO LIQUID RATIOS, THEY'RE STILL PRETTY UNFAVORABLE FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND ANY SORT OF IMPACTFUL SNOW
REMAINS UNLIKELY. ASIDE FROM THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL, AREAS
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE FORECAST
REGION WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES, WHEREAS SOUTHERN UTAH WILL
CONTINUE A WARMING TREND.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/6AM TUESDAY)
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FILLS IN
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF AN UPPER TROUGH BRINGING CALM AND
BENIGN CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY, A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN SOMEWHAT AS IT
TRAVERSES ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH WITH AMPLE MOISTURE RESULTING IN
SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. THIS
FLOW PATTERN WILL ALSO RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH WINDS CLOCKING TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL YIELD
VALLEY TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 70-80 DEGREES WITH LOWER
WASHINGTON COUNTY LIKELY SEEING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.
COME THURSDAY EVENING, MODEL CONSENSUS APPEARS QUITE FAVORABLE
FOR A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH TO PUSH IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE DIFFLUENT ALOFT WITH UPPER
LEVEL FLOW CLOCKING TO SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
PATTERN WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF OUR VALLEYS AND SNOW SHOWERS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS
MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE IS ADVECTED OVER THE AREA. AS OF NOW,
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTFUL IN NATURE.
GUIDANCE DOES, HOWEVER, BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS THE TROUGH MOVES
INLAND WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH/SOUTH IT WILL PUSH INLAND
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. REGARDLESS, GUIDANCE APPEARS FAVORABLE
ACROSS THE BOARD FOR A WINDY WEEKEND WITH GUSTS GREATER THAN 20MPH
ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH MATERIALIZING THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTS WILL
THEN MAKE THEIR WAY NORTH FRIDAY EVENING REACHING AROUND 20-30MPH
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING WITH GUSTS ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH INCREASING FURTHER, LIKELY EXCEEDING 35MPH.
ADDITIONALLY, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST EACH DAY FROM
THURSDAY ON INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY IS EXPECTED AROUND 09Z THIS
MORNING BEFORE CLOCKING TO NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 18Z. LATER IN THE
EVENING, WINDS WILL CLOCK BACK TO SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE DIURNAL
PATTERN PERSISTS.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 18-20KTS MAY DEVELOP AT KCDC AROUND 18Z, SUBSIDING AROUND
03Z.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WARTHEN/WORSTER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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