438
FXUS65 KSLC 202102
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
302 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK
WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL GRAZE
NORTHERN UTAH BOTH MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY, TEMPORARILY CURBING THE
WARMING TREND AND BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z/6AM TUESDAY)
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT
GRAZED NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED
EAST OF THE AREA, ALLOWING SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. EARLIER CLOUD COVER HAS THINNED SOMEWHAT, THOUGH SOME
CUMULUS REMAINS. IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM, THE AREA IS SEEING
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
THE RIDGE WILL NOT REMAIN IN PLACE FOR LONG, HOWEVER, WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ON TRACK TO GRAZE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS ONE LOOKS TO BE A BIT LESS WEAK THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE, RESULTING IN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER
NORTHERN UTAH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NEAR
THE UTAH/IDAHO BORDER. ASSOCIATED ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST, THOUGH, WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN
ONCE AGAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. OVER NORTHERN
UTAH, HIGHS WILL MOST LIKELY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN
VALUES OBSERVED TODAY. MEANWHILE, THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
OVER SOUTHERN UTAH WITH HIGHS UP TO 5F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/6AM TUESDAY)
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE SET UP FOR
SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND UTAH TUESDAY. AFTER THE MONDAY COLD FRONT THAT
WILL CURB A WARMING TREND, VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S
AND 70S FOR MUCH OF UTAH, WITH 80S FOR LOWER WASHINGTON COUNTY.
LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE ZONAL FLOW WEDNESDAY AND SLIDE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND NORTHERN UTAH. THAT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THOSE LOCATIONS MUCH OF THE DAY. MOST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS, WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 8500
FEET. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT, GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25
INCHES, WITH SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO AROUND 3 INCHES.
SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST THURSDAY WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH TRACKING INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
ENHANCE THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN UTAH, WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS FOR
SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND NORTHERN UTAH.
THE SET UP WILL REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL LINGER NEAR THE WEST
COAST. SHORTWAVES WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL
BRING DAILY SHOWERS TO SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND NORTHERN UTAH. WINDS
WILL STAY ENHANCED THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN UTAH, WHILE PICKING UP
FURTHER NORTH BY FRIDAY.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ONCE IT
SLIDES INLAND, LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
LIFTING IT INTO THE PACNW AND OTHERS WITH A TRACK INTO UTAH.
REGARDLESS, THERE WOULD BE A COOL DOWN AFTER A WEEK OF WARMER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS. THE LIFTING TROUGH INTO THE PACNW WOULD BRING
LESS PRECIPITATION AND COOLING THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND
UTAH, WITH MORE PRECIPITATION AND COOLING IF IT WERE TO TRACK
FURTHER SOUTH.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
30-40% CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONT BETWEEN
~09Z-16Z, WITH ABOUT A 20% CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION DURING
THAT PERIOD. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWING BACK TO THE SSE
AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR VRB WINDS IN
THE 09-16Z PERIOD DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF POTENTIAL SHOWERS. THIS
WEAK FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN AN EARLIER THAN NORMAL WIND SHIFT TO THE
NW LATE MONDAY MORNING, MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 15Z-17Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING BETWEEN ~08Z-17Z MONDAY
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH, EXCEPT ACROSS SW WYOMING WHERE RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND. ROUGHLY A 60% CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER DURING THE ABOVE-MENTIONED TIMEFRAME, WITH
~20% CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT KEVW BETWEEN ~12Z-17Z.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAPHAGAN
LONG TERM...WILSON
AVIATION...ADESMET
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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