092
FXUS65 KSLC 210847
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
247 AM MDT MON APR 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN ACTIVE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF
PERIODIC PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY DELTA TO
PRICE WILL LARGELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY)
A CHAOTIC NORTHERN STREAM
WILL KEEP A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM AND INTO THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. EARLY MORNING
UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATES SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA
ACROSS THE PACNW/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS NORTHERN UTAH
EARLY THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY THIS FRONT IS NEAR THE SALT LAKE
CITY AREA...AND WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL UTAH BY EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEEPENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE PACNW.
RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING SHOW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH,
HEAVIEST NEAR THE IDAHO/UTAH BORDER. WHILE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH WILL END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE BY LATE MORNING, NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...EXPECT WEAK HIGH-BASED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WEAK CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN UTAH...AND WOULD BRING THE THREAT OF GUSTY AND ERRATIC
MICROBURST WINDS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF WEAK HIGH-BASED CONVECTION MAY OCCUR ALONG THE
WEAKENING/SHIFTING FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND PERHAPS NORTHERN UTAH. AGAIN, THE MAIN
CONCERN WOULD BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC MICROBURST WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY)
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS
BRINGING CALM AND BENIGN CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY, A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SLIDE EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN SOMEWHAT
AS IT TRAVERSES ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH WITH AMPLE MOISTURE RESULTING
IN SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING.
THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL ALSO RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WINDS CLOCKING TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL
YIELD VALLEY TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 70-80 DEGREES WITH LOWER
WASHINGTON COUNTY LIKELY SEEING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.
COME THURSDAY EVENING, MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR A
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH TO PUSH IN ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE DIFFLUENT ALOFT WITH UPPER LEVEL
FLOW CLOCKING TO SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN
UTAH. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY EVENING AS THE TROUGH
NUDGES CLOSER. THIS PATTERN WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OUR VALLEYS AND SNOW SHOWERS AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE IS ADVECTED OVER THE
AREA. AS OF NOW, ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTFUL IN
NATURE.
GUIDANCE REMAINS QUITE SPORADIC WITH THE TROUGHS POSITIONING AND
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN EXTENT AS IT MOVES INLAND. REGARDLESS, GUIDANCE
APPEARS FAVORABLE ACROSS THE BOARD FOR A WINDY WEEKEND WITH GUSTS
GREATER THAN 20MPH ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH MATERIALIZING THURSDAY
EVENING. GUSTS WILL THEN MAKE THEIR WAY NORTH FRIDAY EVENING
REACHING AROUND 20-30MPH ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING WITH GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH INCREASING FURTHER, LIKELY
EXCEEDING 35MPH. ADDITIONALLY, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
EACH DAY FROM THURSDAY ON INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AS
THE PATTERN REMAINS GENERALLY UNCHANGED.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. BRIEF BOUTS OF GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20KTS OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 11-12Z BEFORE CALMING DOWN
DURING THE DAY. LIGHT VICINITY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
TERMINAL AROUND 10-13Z. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE OUT OF THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE IN THE EVENING.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
CLOCK TO WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AS
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUD COVER ACROSS
ALL SITES WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
KRUSE/WORSTER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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