892
FXUS65 KSLC 212022
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
222 PM MDT MON APR 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN ACTIVE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF
PERIODIC PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY DELTA TO
PRICE WILL LARGELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z/6AM WEDNESDAY)
A PROGRESSIVE QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST THIS AFTERNOON. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WITH THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH.
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ROUGHLY 5F ABOVE
CLIMO THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH ARE RUNNING NEAR CLIMO.
HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH BASED CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEVADA, THEN SPREAD EAST IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST UTAH
THIS EVENING. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG MICROBURST OR TWO.
THE UPPER FLOW BACKS A BIT TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS WILL LIFT THE
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD, ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO WARM ~5F
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH, AND TREND 2-3F WARMER ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH.
LATE IN THE DAY CONVECTION FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEVADA, THEN SPREAD INTO NORTHERN UTAH DURING
THE EVENING HOURS, POTENTIALLY REACHING THE WASATCH FRONT LATE IN
THE EVENING IF THIS ACTIVITY PERSISTS. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, WITH LITTLE IF ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/6AM WEDNESDAY)
THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, AS A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. INITIALLY THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL LIFT THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS EJECTING WAVE
WILL OVERSPREAD NORTHERN UTAH/SOUTHWEST WYOMING BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE TRAILING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH INTO THURSDAY
MAINTAINING A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH. AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL WARM TO NEAR 10F ABOVE CLIMO
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH, AND REMAIN 5-7F ABOVE CLIMO ACROSS THE
SOUTH. SLIGHT COOLING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY WITH LITTLE CHANCE IN MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
THE MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DIG A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH
INTO THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MAJORITY OF EPS
MEMBERS ARE SLOWER/DEEPER WITH THIS TROUGH, DEVELOPING AN UPPER
LOW WHICH DOESN'T LIFT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL SUNDAY,
WITH LINGERING MOISTURE LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE
THE MAJORITY OF THE GEFS MEMBERS ARE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE,
LIFTING THIS TROUGH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THESE DISCREPANCIES HAVE GONE WITH
NBM FORECAST WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF PRECIP
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT, AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS SWITCHING BACK TO SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND 03Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
NORTHERN TAF SITES, AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN TAF
SITES, WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
SEAMAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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