498
FXUS65 KSLC 220921
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
321 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN ACTIVE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF
PERIODIC PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY DELTA TO
PRICE WILL LARGELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY)
AN ACTIVE SPRING PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TODAY, INDUCING INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.
CAMS SUGGEST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEVADA TO GENERATE AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AFTER 00Z THIS
EVENING. ADDITIONAL HIGH-BASED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL UTAH. FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF MOST OF THE CAM
GUIDANCE, AN AREA OF HIGH-BASED CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO CROSS
THE WASATCH FRONT BETWEEN 03Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE UTAH BORDER...LENDING MORE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT.
OUTSIDE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION (LESS THAN 0.05"), GUSTY AND
ERRATIC MICROBURST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO 06Z.
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SHIFT INTO NORTHERN UTAH BY THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...EXPECT TEMPERATURES AROUND 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE DATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z THURSDAY)
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN
LIFTING NORTH THURSDAY MORNING AS TRANSIENT RIDGING BUILDS IN
ACROSS UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH
TO OUR WEST. AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER APPEARS ON TAP FOR THE
FORECAST AREA AS THIS TROUGH APPEARS TO BE QUITE DIFFLUENT. THIS
WILL YIELD LEAST SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE STATE EACH DAY
WITHIN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH,
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL UTAH, AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING.
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUITE SLOW AS IT
PROGRESSES EAST, AND THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT
TO NORTHERN EXTENT AS IT PUSHES INLAND AND IF IT WILL CLOSE OFF
AND BECOME AN UPPER CLOSED LOW. AROUND ~50% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
DEVELOP A CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT IS SOMEWHAT DEEPER THAN OTHER
MEMBERS AND HAVE THE SYSTEM GENERALLY PUSHING INLAND SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OREGON COASTLINES. THE OTHER
HALF OF GUIDANCE KEEPS THE TROUGH AS AN OPEN WAVE AND GENERALLY
LESS DEEP THAN THE OTHER HALF OF GUIDANCE. FOR THE MEMBERS THAT
KEEP THE TROUGH AS AN OPEN WAVE, IT APPEARS TO EXIT THE REGION
NOTABLY FASTER THAN THE MEMBERS THAT CLOSE OFF THE UPPER LOW. IF
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW SOLUTION WERE TO OCCUR, TEMPERATURES WITHIN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST MAY TREND LOWER WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
INCREASING SOMEWHAT IN FUTURE FORECASTS WHEN A FINAL SOLUTION
APPEARS MORE EVIDENT.
THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS GENERALLY TRENDED
SLOWER, RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY WITH NORTHERN
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING APPEARING FAVORED WITHIN THIS PATTERN.
THIS IS DUE TO MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA DUE TO THE SYSTEM
TRENDING SLOWER WITH AMPLE FORCING ALOFT. POPS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
WHEN THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY, A LINGERING SYSTEM WOULD ALSO RESULT IN A SLIGHT
COOLDOWN ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH MONDAY AS CLOUD COVER PERSISTS
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE BEGINNING
SATURDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY PERSIST OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD SEEING AN INCREASE THIS EVENING FOLLOWING
21Z. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS EXISTS NEAR
THE TERMINAL TOMORROW EVENING FOLLOWING 00Z LASTING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON BEFORE A DIURNAL UPTICK IN
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST KICKS IN, THEN CALMING DOWN FOLLOWING
03Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN UTAH SITES TOMORROW EVENING FOLLOWING 00Z,
LIKELY PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
KRUSE/WORSTER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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