182
FXUS65 KSLC 222129
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
329 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN ACTIVE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF
PERIODIC PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY DELTA TO
PRICE WILL LARGELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z/6AM THURSDAY)
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE PACNW, AS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE MOVING
INTO NORTHERN UTAH THIS EVENING. WITH WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, EXPECT LIGHT, HIGH-BASED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WEST DESERT, SHIFTING
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN QUARTER OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
BY EARLY MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE LARGELY UNIMPACTFUL WITH
VERY LITTLE QPF, THOUGH PERIODS OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS CAN'T BE
RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGEST OF SHOWERS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING,
SHOWERS WILL INTENSIFY AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE, THOUGH STILL WILL
BE MOISTURE-STARVED WITH FEW IMPACTS (QPF<0.10 INCHES). SOUTHERN
UTAH WILL REMAIN DRY DURING THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD, AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. HIGHS NEAR 70F ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST VALLEYS...CLOSER TO 80F ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH AND NEAR LAKE
POWELL, AND REACHING THE MID-80S IN ST. GEORGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/6AM THURSDAY)
THE LONG TERM WILL START WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH ARRIVING
LATER IN THE WEEKEND THAT WILL BRING COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING BY TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY THAT
WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK ASCENT ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH/SW WYOMING. THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THIS SHORTWAVE TO WORK WITH ALONG
WITH SOME INSTABILITY THAT COULD TRIGGER SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND SW WYOMING.
BY FRIDAY A TROUGH WILL START TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH WILL HELP TO GENERATE SOME
WEAK ASCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UTAH AND SW WYOMING THAT
COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO START TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LONG
DURATION GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD CREATE SOME BLOWING DUST
INITIATING FROM THE DRIER AREAS OF EASTERN NEVADA AND SOUTHWEST
UTAH. ADDITIONALLY, THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH WITH RH LEVELS IN THE LOW TEENS TO UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE DRY AIR IN PLACE ON SATURDAY WILL HELP PREVENT CONVECTION FROM
DEVELOPING ON. HOWEVER, MOISTURE STREAMS BACK INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DURING THE PERIOD, BUT
GUIDANCE IS A BIT UNCERTAIN ON WHETHER THE BEST FORCING WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH OR FURTHER NORTH. BY MONDAY, WE WILL BE ON THE
BACK END OF THE TROUGH WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DIURNAL SHOWERY
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION...KSLC
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON,
TRANSITIONING MORE NORTHERLY INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE CLOCKING
SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY. MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS AHEAD OF
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM. INCREASING INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FOR SOUTHWEST UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT OTHERWISE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AIRSPACE AFTER
ROUGHLY 22Z WEDNESDAY, WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC
OUTFLOW WINDS.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
CUNNINGHAM/MAHAN/WHITLAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page