947
FXUS65 KSLC 230941
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
341 AM MDT WED APR 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN ACTIVE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF
PERIODIC PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY)
SOMEWHAT TYPICAL SPRING WEATHER
CONTINUES ACROSS THE BEEHIVE (AND OUR SMALL PART OF THE COWBOY
STATE) THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THE CHAOTIC
NORTHERN STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PLAYER...WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AGAIN CROSSING INTO THE GREAT BASIN TODAY.
THE ASSOCIATED WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT INTO NORTHERN
UTAH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. NEAR THIS FRONT, EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE MAIN AREA OF IMPACT WILL BE FROM
UTAH COUNTY NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR HIGH-BASED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY FRIDAY
BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z FRIDAY)
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER
APPEARS ON TAP FOR THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER CLOSED LOW MOVES
TOWARD THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN COAST OF CALIFORNIA. COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHTS FORECAST, ENSEMBLES ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH, AS WELL AS IF IT WILL PUSH INLAND
AS AN UPPER CLOSED LOW (NEARLY 70% OF ALL MEMBERS SUPPORT THIS
SOLUTION). NOTEWORTHY DIFFLUENCE REMAINS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM, THOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS SOMEWHAT DISPLACED FROM THE
FORCING RESULTING IN A LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
REGARDING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS LATE
SATURDAY EVENING WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.
WITH THE EXPECTED FORMATION OF THE UPPER CLOSED LOW, THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO TREND SLOWER HENCE ELEVATED POPS CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY AS THE LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST WITH TIME. THE UPPER LOW WILL
EJECT NORTHEAST OVER THE ROCKIES CLOCKING OUR FLOW ALOFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM, A BRIEF COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ON
AS HEIGHTS BUILD BACK IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH.
THE MAJORITY OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING CAN EXPECT TO SEE JUST
RAIN SHOWERS FROM THIS SYSTEM AS SNOW LEVELS REMAIN WELL ABOVE
VALLEY FLOORS. HOWEVER, COME MONDAY MORNING WHEN FLOW CLOCKS TO
NORTHWESTERLY, AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT IN PLACE FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE WASATCH AND UINTAS TO SEE SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS AREN'T EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO MUCH, GENERALLY
2-4" ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WITH A FEW AREAS FAVORED IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SEEING UP TO 6".
AS RIDGING BUILDS IN WITH DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION, CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL BE GENERALLY CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS
WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS. FOR
EVERYWHERE ELSE, DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS APPEAR TO TAKE HOLD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE END OF APRIL.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. VICINITY SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE TERMINAL FOLLOWING
20Z WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF PERIODIC SHOWERS AT THE TERMINAL
FROM AROUND 00-03Z, THOUGH IT COULD LAST A COUPLE HOURS LONGER.
ADDITIONALLY, SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEGINNING NEAR THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE. STRATUS DECKS
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 7000FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH SOUTHERLIES DURING THE
DAY TODAY BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY IN THE EVENING.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING TERMINALS. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AREN'T EXPECTED, THOUGH SITES SUCH AS KLGU AND
PERHAPS KOGD COULD SEE CEILINGS DROP NEAR 6000FT.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
KRUSE/WORSTER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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