360
FXUS65 KSLC 232128
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
328 PM MDT WED APR 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN ACTIVE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF
PERIODIC PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH THROUGH
AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY/MONDAY LOOK TO BE THE
COOLEST AND MOST UNSETTLED OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z/6AM FRIDAY)..WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE
SOUTHERN OREGON WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
THROUGHOUT THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO OUR AREA. ONE LINEAR CLOUD
FEATURE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW, STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL NEVADA TO
SOUTHEAST IDAHO, IS ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT RETURNS ON AREA RADARS
AND ROUGHLY DEMARCATES THE LOCATION OF A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
PER LATEST MODEL ANALYSIS. NORTHWEST UTAH HAS HAD THE MOST
CONSISTENT RETURNS THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE ADDITIONAL WEAK
CONVECTION IS ONGOING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEVADA JUST WEST
OF THE UT/NV BORDER AND DOWNSTREAM OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO. MUCH OF
THIS PRECIP IS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE GROUND THOUGH AS SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE DIPPING INTO THE 20S. NO MICROBURST GUSTS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED AS OF YET, LIKELY DUE TO THE MEAGER INSTABILITY (90TH
PERCENTILE OF SURFACE-BASED CAPE IS ONLY 200 J/KG OR SO PER THE
12Z HREF OVER NORTHERN UTAH). LASTLY, SOUTH OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
OVER SOUTHERN UTAH AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST UTAH, SOUTH WINDS ARE
GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH.
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN UTAH
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT, THEN
DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES THE WASATCH FRONT MID-EVENING. BEHIND
THIS FRONT, MOST CAMS HAVE SUFFICIENT FORCING TO FORM A LINEAR
AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHWEST UTAH. HOWEVER, NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT GIVEN MEAGER
TO NON- EXISTENT INSTABILITY AND DRY LOW LEVELS. THERE REMAINS A
LOW CHANCE (<20%) OF MICROBURST WINDS OVER NORTHWEST UTAH WITH
THIS ACTIVITY. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE TO
INCREASE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND HELP SET THE STAGE FOR A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOMORROW.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND THE TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL
SLIDE THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY MORNING TO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
COMBINED WITH MORE FAVORABLE PROFILES PER MODEL SOUNDINGS,
EXPECTING A BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS MORE PRECIP
REACHING THE GROUND. WITH MORE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY VS TODAY, LATEST
GUIDANCE EVEN HAS A 20-30% PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN UTAH. HIGH-END PRECIP POTENTIAL FROM THIS SYSTEM
(75TH PERCENTILE FROM THE NBM) IS .1-.2" FOR NORTHERN UTAH
VALLEYS AND A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS).
THE LOW-END SCENARIO (25TH PERCENTILE NBM) IS DRY FOR ALL VALLEYS
FROM UTAH VALLEY SOUTHWARD, WITH MOUNTAINS MAXING OUT AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH. THE CONVECTIVE ASPECT OF THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTS
THAT PRECIP WILL BE MORE HIT-OR-MISS THAN RECENT EVENTS, ALSO
PARTIALLY EXPLAINING THE AFOREMENTIONED WIDE RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES. EITHER WAY, SOUTHERN UTAH LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY
THROUGHOUT, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY SOUTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO
30 MPH. THE TROUGH AXIS THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY
THURSDAY EVENING, BRINGING A DRYING A WARMING TREND.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/6AM FRIDAY)
MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS HIGH IN
THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD FEATURING A CUTOFF (OR
CUTTING OFF) LOW APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. INITIALLY,
LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION WILL ONLY YIELD LOW END
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS PRIMARILY THE HIGH NORTHERN TERRAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES, ENHANCED
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL PROMOTE MILD
TEMPERATURES (AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 5-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS. TO THE LATTER POINT, STRONGEST H7 FLOW LOOKS TO
BE SITUATED ATOP SOUTHERN UTAH AND UTAH'S WEST DESERT REGION,
RESULTING IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON GUSTS IN THE 30-45 MPH
RANGE. CURRENT PROBABILITIES INDICATE ROUGHLY A 30-40% CHANCE OF
WIND ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS FOR A SUFFICIENT WINDOW OF TIME. MOVING
INTO SATURDAY, THE LARGE CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY CHURNS EASTWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN AND TOWARDS THE LOCAL FORECAST REGION. IF ANYTHING,
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LESSENED AS MORE DRY AIR IS WRAPPED IN, SO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROP. WITH CLEARER SKIES, CHANCES OF MIXING
DOWN THE STRONG H7 FLOW APPEAR LIKELY OVER A BROADER AREA SATURDAY,
WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-35 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA, AND MORE IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE ELSEWHERE (MAXIMIZED ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH AND THE WEST DESERT). IF DEEPER MIXING OCCURS AS SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POSSIBLE, STRONGER WIND GUSTS MAY NECESSITATE WIND
ADVISORY HEADLINES (~40-60% CHANCE). TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
QUITE MILD.
THE LOW CONTINUES ON ITS EASTWARD TRAJECTORY, SHIFTING INTO UTAH
SUNDAY. MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
WITHIN PREFRONTAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY, REMAINING ELEVATED INTO
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE CORE OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORK THROUGH. LINGERING MOISTURE WITHIN THE COOLER
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. INITIAL H7 TEMPS AROUND 2C TO 6C
WILL DROP TO ROUGHLY -2C TO -4C, SO IN ADDITION TO SNOW LEVELS
DROPPING FROM AROUND 8000+ FT MSL TO 6500-7000 FT MSL, SOME LOW END
PROBABILITIES (~10-20%) OF LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS ARE NOTED MONDAY.
FORECAST WATER AMOUNTS HAVEN'T SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PRIOR THE
PRIOR FORECAST, WITH HIGHER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF THE WASATCH AND
UINTAS POTENTIALLY SEEING SNOW ACCUMULATION ON THE ORDER OF 2-5" OR
SO. GIVEN THE LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LIKELY NORTHWEST FLOW
MONDAY, OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS SUCH AS THE UPPER COTTONWOODS
COULD SEE A BIT MORE, WITH AROUND A 40% CHANCE TO SEE 8"+, AND 20%
CHANCE TO SEE UP TO 12". WHILE DEPENDENT ON WHERE EXACTLY SOME OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TRACKS, LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT
HAVE WATER/QPF AMOUNTS MORE IN THE 0.25-0.50" RANGE. SO, ALL IN ALL,
DECENT POTENTIAL FOR SOME SOAKING RAINS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST REGION, AS WELL AS SOME LATE SEASON MOUNTAIN SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. AS LARGELY IMPLIED, TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO FALL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH HIGHS BACK NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION.
FOR TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND AS THE CORE OF THE LOW
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER, ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL STILL BE AROUND
TO RESULT IN SOME INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHOWERS, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING BRUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHICH THEN APPEARS TO
GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE UPSTREAM. WHILE THERE
IS FAIR CONSENSUS IN THIS WEAK FEATURE, THIS FAR OUT THERE IS MUCH
LESS CONSENSUS ON ANY SORT OF DETAILS, SO FOR NOW FORECAST JUST
INCLUDES SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOW END (~20-40%) PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
AVIATION...KSLC
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AS A COUPLE WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE
REGION. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR HIGH-BASED SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 22Z-02Z THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS DURING THIS
PERIOD. AN ADDITIONAL LINE OF SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS THROUGH
NORTHERN UTAH, THOUGH IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. EXPECT TYPICAL
DIURNAL TRENDS FOR WINDS, WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAILING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AIRSPACE TODAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE HIGH-BASED AND CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, THOUGH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR ALL REGIONAL TERMINALS.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
VAN CLEAVE/WARTHEN/WHITLAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page