293
FXUS65 KSLC 242140
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
340 PM MDT THU APR 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
ONGOING ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK, WITH A STRONGER AND COOLER LATE SEASON STORM SET TO MOVE
THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z/6AM SATURDAY)
A WEAK REMNANT BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH A GRAZING TROUGH IS CONTINUING A VERY SLOW SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION BEFORE IT IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS CENTRAL
UTAH. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT AND SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
BEHIND IT GIVEN THE COOLER MID-LEVELS AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING IS
IN TURN RESULTING SCATTERED CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE FORECAST REGION. GIVEN FASTER FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE GRAZING TROUGH, A BIT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN THE
30-40 KT RANGE IS ALSO NOTED. AS A RESULT, WOULD NOT BE ENTIRELY
SURPRISED IF A FEW STORMS SHOW MORE ORGANIZED CHARACTERISTICS AND IN
TURN PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL AND MODESTLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. IN
GENERAL, SHOULD SEE THE COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY TREND DOWNWARD
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MOVING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, WITH
ADDITIONAL SUBSIDENCE THEN AS A WEAK TRANSIENT RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT
THROUGH OVERHEAD.
FOR FRIDAY, WILL SEE A STRONGER AND BROADER TROUGH BEGIN TO MOVE
ASHORE ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WILL IMPART AN INCREASING
DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION, WHICH WILL
HELP REVERSE ANY COOLING WHICH OCCURRED FROM THE PRIOR DAY'S WEAK
COLD FRONT. TO THAT END, EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA TO REBOUND SEVERAL DEGREES IN COMPARISON TO
THURSDAY'S HIGH MARKS. WHILE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MAINTAINED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF UTAH, GOOD MIXING IN THE FACE
OF CLEARING/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP PUSH DOWN SOME HIGHER
MOMENTUM AIR, RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS
GENERALLY IN THE 25-40 MPH RANGE. ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING, CONDITIONS ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN. LINGERING MOISTURE
IS NOTED, AND WILL SEE SOME PVA AND DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED BROAD TROUGH. DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION GIVEN THE
MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC FORCING IN TURN WILL YIELD SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AGAIN. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS MOST LIKELY
INITIATION POINTS AS BEING OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN UTAH,
ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN WASATCH AND WESTERN UINTAS, WITH ACTIVITY
SPREADING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO ADJACENT VALLEYS/LOCATIONS
THEREAFTER. WHILE CONDITIONAL ON DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION, SIMILAR
SHEAR VALUES TO THAT OF THURSDAY WILL ALSO PROMOTE SOME AMOUNT OF
ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTION, AND THUS AT LEAST A LOW END POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS. GIVEN THE
HIGHER COVERAGE NOTED ACROSS/NEAR THE HIGHER NORTHERN TERRAIN,
ANYONE PLANNING RECREATION ACCORDINGLY SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE
WEATHER. ACTIVITY WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND DOWNWARD IN COVERAGE
FOLLOWING THE CESSATION OF DAYTIME HEATING LATER IN THE EVENING,
WITH SEASONABLY MILD LOWS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/6AM SATURDAY)
A DRY AND WINDY DAY ON
SATURDAY WILL PRECEDE AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THIS
TROUGH WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERY VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE GRAZING NORTHERN UTAH/SW WYOMING LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MORE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOLLOWED BY A BUILDING
RIDGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH.
THIS WILL ADVECT IN MUCH DRIER AIR WITH UPPER SINGLE DIGIT TO LOWER
TEEN RH ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
PATCHY BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
DOWNWIND OF DRIER SOILS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH WILL GUST 30-40 MPH, BUT LIKELY REMAINING
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT IN WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND AN AREA OF ENHANCED ASCENT ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
RESULT IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN UTAH. AS THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST ON MONDAY NORTHWEST
FLOW AND BROAD WEAK/MODERATE ASCENT WILL CREATE MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND SW WYOMING. ALL IN ALL, THE QPF
TOTAL TRENDS HAVE DECREASED WITH THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE. GENERALLY
0.1-0.3" OF QPF ACROSS VALLEYS WITH UP TO 0.5" ACROSS MOUNTAINS
ALONG WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET.
41% OF GUIDANCE HAS A SHORTWAVE PASSING CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE NORTH ON
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TO BRING MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION TO NORTHERN
UTAH AND SW WYOMING. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK AS A RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK.
AVIATION...KSLC
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH AROUND 04Z
THIS EVENING. THESE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY AND
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS. OUTSIDE OF ANY OUTFLOWS, PREVAILING
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 03Z, TURNING
SOUTHERLY THEREAFTER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE UTAH TODAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WARTHEN/MAHAN/CHENG
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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