195
FXUS65 KSLC 260948
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
348 AM MDT SAT APR 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING WILL SEE DRY, MILD, AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THE
SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BRINGING A RETURN
TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z/6AM MONDAY)
A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS SPINNING JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING.
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING ARE IN A DRY SLOT IN SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. CONDITIONS REMAIN MILD, WITH CLOUDS OVER
NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING CONTINUING TO ERODE AS THE
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. IN THIS PATTERN, WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES UP TO 10F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS FOR MANY LOCATIONS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH IN WIND PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHWEST UTAH.
HOWEVER, UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT LOOK QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT GUSTS, AND LATEST HREF CONTINUES TO SHOW
A LOW CHANCE AT BEST OF HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE LOW WILL MAKE ITS WAY EAST TODAY, REACHING THE GREAT BASIN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW, WITH THE CENTER OF THE
LOW CROSSING NORTHERN UTAH. AS A RESULT, NORTHERN UTAH WILL BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS, WITH THE TROUGH ALSO USHERING
IN COLDER AIR THAT WILL BRING MAXES TO OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS ACROSS THE AREA. ASSOCIATED MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, BUT GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THINGS, THERE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY THAN USUAL IN
AMOUNTS.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/6AM MONDAY)
BY MONDAY MORNING, THE MID-LEVEL
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING STORM SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED JUST
OVERHEAD, IF NOT SLIGHTLY DOWNSTREAM OF THE NORTHERN AREA. BIGGEST
THING TO NOTE IN WITH THIS IS THAT INSTABILITY WILL LINGER SO LONG
AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL (CENTER OF THE LOW) REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. WITH A SLOW MIGRATION OF THIS FEATURE, EXPECT MONDAY TO
FEATURE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING, AS WELL AS VALLEY AREAS ADJACENT TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MONDAY IS ALSO LOOKING LIKE THE FIRST FULL DAY IN
THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREA, MARKING THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK, WHILE THE SOUTHERN AREA WILL SEE
FURTHER MODIFICATION AND SLIGHT WARMING OF THE AIRMASS. ACROSS THE
NORTH, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WHILE THE SOUTHERN AREA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES ONLY ABOUT 2-5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL (CLOSEST TO NORMAL NEAR THE AZ BORDER).
GIVEN THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION, SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
FAIRLY LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (ABOUT 7,500FT IN NORTHERN UTAH/
SOUTHWEST WYOMING... AROUND 8,250FT IN CENTRAL/ SOUTHERN UTAH). ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WE MAY SEE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY WILL BE AROUND AN INCH OR LESS FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, HOWEVER, FAVORED HIGH ELEVATION ROUTES (I.E. UPPER
COTTONWOODS) MAY COLLECT AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES (25TH TO 75TH
PERCENTILE). WHILE I DO THINK THAT MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING POTENTIAL
SNOW AMOUNTS, THERE IS ABOUT A 10% CHANCE THAT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
UPPER COTTONWOODS EXCEED 6 INCHES. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH/
SOUTHWEST WYOMING, HOWEVER, IMPACTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE AS MINIMAL
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL EXISTS.
GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A COMBINATION OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EXIST, AS WELL AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL
FOR A WEAK RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY, HOWEVER, ANY
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL SEE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO SHOWERS...
MAKING AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE (~25% CHANCE) OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF UTAH. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO WARM THROUGH THIS PERIOD BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS... GETTING US BACK TO PLEASANT SPRING DAYS.
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK, MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPING OFFSHORE OF THE WEST COAST, WITH
POTENTIAL TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER TO
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. THERE IS STILL A SIZABLE AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW THIS TROUGH WILL EVOLVE, SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FORECASTS GOING FORWARD AS A FEW SOLUTIONS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT.
AVIATION...KSLC
SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE KSLC
TERMINAL THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ALONGSIDE VFR
CONDITIONS. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE SUN RISES
OVER THE VALLEY (~14-15Z) AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH ROUGHLY SUNSET.
AROUND 02Z, A SWAP TO WESTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND 04Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS (20-25+
KNOTS) ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY WITH SKIES
CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREA. MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BEGIN INCREASING IN SPEEDS AS THE
SUN RISES AND WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH SUN DOWN. AREAS ON THE
NORTH END OF TERRAIN FEATURES MAY SEE VARIABLE FLOW DIRECTIONS AND
GUST SPREAD THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAPHAGAN
LONG TERM/AVIATION...WEBBER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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