616
FXUS65 KSLC 122059
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
259 PM MDT MON MAY 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE VALLEYS OF
WESTERN UTAH INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY, USHERING IN A PERIOD OF COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z/6AM WEDNESDAY)
A BROAD STORM SYSTEM IS
STRETCHED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE
ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY INTO FAR NORTHWEST
UTAH. IN A DRY SLOT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME CUMULUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN
UTAH AND CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY,
WINDS HAVE BEEN QUITE STRONG AND GUSTY, PARTICULARLY FOR THE
VALLEYS OF WESTERN UTAH WHERE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST UTAH, INCLUDING CEDAR
CITY, HAVE SEEN SOME WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. EXPANDED THE
GOING WIND ADVISORY THIS MORNING AND UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR SOUTHWEST UTAH.
THE FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, BRINGING AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING NEAR TO BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS AFTER A FEW DAYS OF NEAR RECORD HIGHS. THE SYSTEM
WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH, BUT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE A
LIMITING FACTOR HERE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE STRONG AND GUSTY FOR THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHEAST UTAH, AND WITH A
HIGH CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH, HAVE ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS FOR TOMORROW.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/6AM WEDNESDAY)
A BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE DEPARTING EAST AS WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. IN ITS
WAKE, WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FILL INTO THE AREA KEEPING
TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY COOL HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. MOST NORTHERN
VALLEYS WILL GENERALLY STAY WITHIN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WITH
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH AND LOWER WASHINGTON COUNTY SEEING TEMPERATURES
REACH INTO THE 80S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR AS WE REACH
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES AREAWIDE.
ENHANCED WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL YIELD A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
WITHIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. CHANCES DWINDLE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION AS WELL AS FORCING LETTING OFF THE THROTTLE SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.
ON SATURDAY, A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND AROUND
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. EMBEDDED WITHIN
THIS FLOW, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN INTO UTAH. THERE IS SOME CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY STILL WITH
RESPECT TO NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTATION AND AMPLITUDE ACROSS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS AT THIS TIME, THOUGH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY,
SNOWFALL ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS APPEARS LIKELY ABOVE 9000FT
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. IF GUIDANCE HONES IN ON A MORE AMPLIFIED AND
COMPACT SYSTEM, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WOULD LIKELY INCREASE AS A
RESULT AND TREND SOMEWHAT EARLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING. THE INVERSE IS ALSO TRUE WITH A MORE OPEN
WAVE-TYPE SYSTEM WITH A LESS WIDESPREAD SCENARIO RESULTING. TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED AND REFINED IN UPCOMING FORECASTS.
AVIATION...KSLC
GUSTY WINDS AROUND 35-45KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT. EXPECT AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT FROM GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 30KTS WITH THIS FRONT, LIKELY
AROUND 04-05Z (THOUGH THIS MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS 03Z). OCCASIONAL
VIS REDUCTIONS DUE TO BLOWING DUST ARE POSSIBLE, BUT CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR (90% CHANCE).
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
WIDESPREAD SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS OF AT LEAST 30KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND AT
LEAST EARLY EVENING ACROSS UT/SW-WY. MANY AREAS WILL ALSO SEE GUSTS
TO 40KTS, SUCH AS ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT AND ACROSS WESTERN UT.
KCDC HAS EVEN REACHED 50KTS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED AREAS
OF BLOWING DUST AND MVFR VIS ARE POSSIBLE; OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN UTAH THIS
EVENING, STALLING JUST AHEAD OF ROUGHLY KMLF-KDTA-KHCR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS THE FRONT REACHES KENV BY
00Z, KLGU AROUND 02-03Z, AND THEN KPVU BY 07-08Z BEFORE STALLING.
BEHIND THIS FRONT, EXPECT AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT FROM STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO BRIEFLY GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. SITES AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING LATE
TUESDAY MORNING, WITH THE FRONT STARTING TO PUSH EASTWARD AGAIN INTO
EASTERN UT AROUND MID DAY.
FIRE WEATHER
GUSTY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER UTAH TODAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH OBSERVED
IN SOME WESTERN UTAH VALLEYS. IN A DRY SLOT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM,
CONDITIONS ARE QUITE DRY WITH SOME RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS LOW
AS THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
UTAH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, RESULTING IN HIGHER RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND DECREASING WINDS. STRONG
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VALLEYS TOMORROW
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THAT AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ101>107-115-116.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR UTZ120-121-
126>131.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ122.
WY...NONE.
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...TRAPHAGAN
LONG TERM...WORSTER
AVIATION...CUNNINGHAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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