808
FXUS65 KSLC 142144
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
344 PM MDT WED MAY 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MAINTAINING COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, BEFORE THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z/6AM FRIDAY)
A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH
IS GRADUALLY EXITING THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AS IT CROSSES THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ALOFT COUPLED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING IS HELPING TO FUEL SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WHICH WILL BE
ON THE DOWNWARD TREND HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION, TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH ARE RUNNING 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, WHILE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH ARE CLOSER TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
AS THIS LOW CONTINUES EAST THURSDAY, A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO NORTHERN AND
PERHAPS CENTRAL UTAH, WHILE THE OVERALL TREND ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
CLIMO...RUNNING 5-8 DEGREES COOL ACROSS THE NORTH, AND 3-5 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO ACROSS THE SOUTH.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/6AM FRIDAY)
NO CHANGES TO LONG TERM
FORECAST. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
LONG TERM FORECAST BEGINS WITH AN EXTREMELY SUBTLE AND TRANSIENT
SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHIFTING THROUGH OVERHEAD. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP
CONTINUE THE GRADUAL WARMUP, THOUGH FORECAST AFTERNOON HIGHS
REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL PARTIALLY BE A
RESULT OF A FAIR BIT OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER
BENEATH THE RIDGE AND AHEAD A CORRESPONDING WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
QUICKLY SHIFTING IN. GIVEN MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE IS ALSO MORE
MID/UPPER LEVEL IN NATURE, AND THAT THE SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL BE PRETTY MODEST, ONLY SEE SOME LOWER END (~20-40%)
CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR. WITH SOME VERY MODEST DESTABILIZATION, A COUPLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY, PARTICULARLY ALONG/EAST
OF THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
LARGER SCALE TROUGH STARTS TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN, AND DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES ATOP THE LOCAL FORECAST REGION. IN
COMPARISON TO THE LAST SYSTEM, H7 WINDS DON'T LOOK AS STRONG, SO
WHILE WIND GUSTS WILL PICK UP IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT,
CURRENT FORECAST CARRIES GUSTS MORE IN THE 20-40 MPH RANGE AT
AREAS ROUGHLY SOUTH OF I-70. LINGERING/INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
ALSO RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER,
WHICH WILL ACT TO LIMIT THERMAL MIXING TO AN EXTENT. THAT SAID,
WILL SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, AND
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO MIX SOME OF THAT MOMENTUM
DOWNWARD AND RESULT IN SOME CORRESPONDING GUSTS. ALSO APPEARS
PREFRONTAL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN MORE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL IN NATURE, AND DRIER SUBCLOUD LAYERS COULD YIELD SOME DCAPE
THAT ANY TYPE OF MORE CONVECTIVE CELL COULD TAKE ADVANTAGE OF.
MAY BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR THOSE WITH WIND RELATED CONCERNS
FOR RECREATION OR OUTDOOR EVENTS AS WE GET CLOSER.
SATURDAY NIGHT ON INTO SUNDAY A COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
WILL SHIFT IN, FOLLOWED BY THE BROADER SCALE TROUGH. THE BROAD
TROUGH WILL THEN GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY IN THE
UPCOMING WEEK, WITH NEBULOUS LOBES OF ENERGY CHURNING WITHIN IT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BECOME MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE
FRONT WORKS IN, AND REMAIN QUITE ELEVATED AS THE TROUGH REMAINS
OVERHEAD GIVEN PRETTY DECENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. ENSEMBLES DIFFER
ON HOW QUICK THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE START TO LIFT
OUT, BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS APPEARS TO BE IN THE MID MONDAY TO
EARLY TUESDAY TIME RANGE OR SO. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW SOME
SEMBLANCE OF RIDGING BUILDING IN AFTER THAT, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES AND IS PRETTY HIGH BY THIS POINT.
IMPACTS WISE, IT DOES LOOK LIKE THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A DECENT
AMOUNT OF WATER WITH IT OVER THE COURSE OF ITS FEW DAYS IN/NEAR
THE FORECAST REGION. CURRENT FORECAST CARRIES STORM TOTAL
(SATURDAY MORNING TO MONDAY NIGHT) WATER AMOUNTS WITH FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD 0.25" TO 0.75" FOR MOST WESTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS (ON
THE LOWER SIDE OF THAT ACROSS SW UT, AND ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF
THAT ALONG MUCH OF THE WASATCH FRONT). EVEN AT THE NBM'S 25TH
PERCENTILE, MOST OF THE FORECAST REGION PICKS UP MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION, AND MANY WITH FAIRLY MEASURABLE AMOUNTS. GIVEN
NAEFS/ECM MEAN IVT NEAR OR ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY, THE ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST INDEX UNSURPRISINGLY
HIGHLIGHTS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH CLIMATOLOGICALLY ANOMALOUS QPF.
THE MOUNTAINS OF UTAH ARE NO EXCEPTION EITHER, WITH FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD QPF/SWE IN EXCESS OF 1.00", WITH SOME NORTHERN MOUNTAIN
AREAS EVEN IN THE 1.50" TO 2.00" RANGE. WITH COOLER H7 TEMPS AND
LOWERED SNOW LEVELS AS THE CORE OF THE TROUGH IS OVERHEAD, THIS
ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE IT COULD TRANSLATE TO SOME PRETTY APPRECIABLE
LATE SEASON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ROUGHLY ABOVE 8500 FEET OR SO. ALL
THAT SAID, WILL CERTAINLY BE A SYSTEM TO KEEP AN EYE ON IN REGARDS
TO TRENDS.
AVIATION...KSLC
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, BECOMING SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN COVERAGE BETWEEN 00-05Z.
ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME (15% CHANCE), AS
WELL AS MVFR CONDITIONS (30% CHANCE). WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
NORTHWESTERLY UNTIL AT LEAST 00Z, AFTER WHICH THE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DECREASES GREATLY. WINDS COULD GO SOUTHEAST AS EARLY AS
01Z, OR AS LATE AS 04Z. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP AFTER 11Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH ROUGHLY 01-02Z ACROSS SOUTHERN UT, AND AROUND 06-
08Z ACROSS NORTHERN UT. MAIN IMPACTS FROM THESE SHOWERS WILL BE
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS, MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION, AND SOMEWHAT
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS (GENERALLY ~20-25KTS). PREVAILING WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ~10-20KTS THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE AREA, LIKELY LINGERING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS EASTERN UT.
FIRE WEATHER
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN
SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AS THIS LOW GRADUALLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION TOMORROW,
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A FEW DEGREES WARMER, BUT REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL FOR MID MAY, WHILE RH VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED. LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY OVER NORTHERN UTAH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL WARMING
AND DRYING, AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
WETTING RAIN WITH HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL, ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SEAMAN
LONG TERM...WARTHEN
AVIATION....CUNNINGHAM
FIRE WEATHER...SEAMAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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