363
FXUS65 KSLC 150850
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
250 AM MDT THU MAY 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WILD ROLLER COASTER OF WEATHER WILL BRING MILD,
SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD, WINTER-LIKE SYSTEM
WILL BRING SNOW TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, VALLEY RAIN, AND
TEMPERATURES MORE AKIN TO MID-MARCH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A QUICK
WARM-UP IS LIKELY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
IF YOU WERE REALLY WISHING TO BE ABLE TO EXPERIENCE
3 OUT OF 4 SEASONS IN ONE WEEK, WELL DO WE HAVE THE BARGAIN FOR
YOU OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
EARLY MORNING UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATE THE MAIN
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WHILE THE LAST
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES NORTHERN UTAH. YET ANOTHER TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WITH THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ONCE AGAIN.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY, BRINGING A
SMALL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION.
BY SATURDAY, A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM BY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH 700MB WINDS NEAR 40KTS, A
FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE WIND GUSTS APPROACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA ACROSS WESTERN UTAH (AROUND 30% CHANCE OF 3+ HOURS OF 45
MPH+ WINDS ACROSS WESTERN MILLARD, BEAVER AND IRON COUNTIES).
WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING, THERE WILL ALSO BE THE THREAT
OF HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND THE ATTENDANT RISK OF
DRY MICROBURSTS. IF THIS SYSTEM COMES IN A BIT FASTER, THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. BUT FOR NOW...THE
MOST LIKELY TIMING WOULD BRING THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
LINEAR FORCING INTO WESTERN UTAH AFTER DARK SATURDAY NIGHT.
AS THIS STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES UTAH SUNDAY, A DECAYING INLAND
PENETRATING SOUTHERN SIERRAS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER (IVT ANOMALIES ARE
AROUND 90TH PERCENTILE) WILL PROVIDE ABUNDANT MOISTURE. EXPECT
THIS COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE WASATCH FRONT SOMETIME SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH A STRONGLY FORCED BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY FALL TO NEAR 7000-7500 FEET
PARTICULARLY IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. AS PART OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN VALLEY RAIN TOTALS AROUND 0.50-1.00" (25TH TO
75TH PERCENTILE) FOR MOST VALLEYS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
UTAH WITH UP TO 1.50" OR SO OF WATER IN THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS THAT DO WELL IN NORTHWEST FLOW. LOOKS LIKE 4 TO 8 INCHES
OF SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BELOW ABOUT 8000 FEET, 6 TO 12 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY 15 INCHES FOR THE UPPER COTTONWOODS ABOVE 8000 FEET
AND THE TUSHAR RANGE (25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE).
FOR NOW, WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY PRODUCTS, BUT FOR THOSE WITH
OUTDOOR PLANS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SATURDAY INTO MONDAY, BE
AWARE THAT WINTER CONDITIONS ARE INCREASING IN LIKELIHOOD AND BE
PREPARED. UNFORTUNATELY EVEN FOR THE VALLEYS, IT LOOKS LIKE A WET
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MORE AKIN TO MID-MARCH THEN MID-MAY.
FOR THOSE WITH GARDENS AND/OR AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS, TEMPERATURES
MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS OF IRON COUNTY, NEAR
FILLMORE AND NEAR LOA/BICKNELL TUESDAY MORNING FOR FROST.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO COVER/MITIGATE
ANY EARLY SEASON AGRICULTURE VULNERABLE TO FROST.
SO WE'VE COVERED SPRING AND WINTER...BUT WHAT ABOUT THE SUMMER
PORTION OF THE NEXT WEEK? CLUSTERING OF THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE
SYSTEM INDICATES A HIGH PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND
CONTINUING POTENTIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD BRING HOT, DRY
TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
AVIATION...KSLC
THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT LEAST IN
THE VICINITY OF THE SLC TERMINAL DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SHOWER
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 40-50% (ALONG WITH A 20%
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS) DURING THE AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY AFTER
19 OR 20Z. THESE SHOWERS WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF CIGS OF 6KFT
OR LOWER AND ERRATIC WINDS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT SOUTH WINDS THIS
MORNING, WITH A POTENTIALLY EARLIER THAN NORMAL WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS WIND SHIFT COULD HAPPEN AS
EARLY AS 15 OR 16Z, BUT 17-18Z OR LATER SEEMS MORE LIKELY.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS (SNOW
ABOVE AROUND 7KFT) ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING, MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
TO SCATTERED COVERAGE (WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS) THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS ALL AREAS EXCEPT SOUTHWEST UTAH WHICH SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
DRY. SOME OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS COULD BRING BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS, GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.
OTHERWISE, MOST AREAS ARE LIKELY TO SEE NEAR-WESTERLY PREVAILING
WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA. A SHORT DURATION AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY, A COLD, SPRING SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY, WITH
SNOW LEVELS FALLING AS LOW AS 7000-7500 FEET IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT, BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MORE REMINISCENT OF MID-
MARCH VERSUS MID-MAY. COOL, UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA. MUCH OF
THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONG RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGING SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND VERY
DRY CONDITIONS BACK TO THE BEEHIVE STATE THROUGH THE NEXT 7-10
DAYS, AT LEAST. SO OVER THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS, WE WILL SEE SPRING,
ALMOST WINTER, AND SUMMER ONCE AGAIN.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
KRUSE/CHENG
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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