786
FXUS65 KSLC 152154
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
354 PM MDT THU MAY 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
CONDITIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY STABLE ACROSS THE
REGION TOMORROW, BUT QUICKLY BEGIN TO DETERIORATE BY SATURDAY AS A
LATE SEASON, COLD STORM SYSTEM PUSHES INTO UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING. AFTER THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION, A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AN ABNORMALLY COOL AND WET SPRING STORM IS POISED
TO BRING A NUMBER OF IMPACTS AREA-WIDE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
* STRONG PRE-FRONTAL WINDS WILL APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA SATURDAY,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS
AREA-WIDE ELEVATING FIRE WEATHER RISK, PARTICULARLY FOR
SOUTHERN UTAH.
* ANOMALOUSLY WET CONDITIONS COULD BRING 0.25-0.5" OF RAIN TO MUCH
OF THE STATE ALONG THE I-15 CORRIDOR FROM CEDAR CITY TO SNOWVILLE,
WITH 0.5-1.25" OF MOISTURE TO THE MOUNTAINS, FALLING AS SNOW ABOVE
7500-9000FT, WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WASATCH.
* INCREASED FROST/FREEZE RISK OVERNIGHT SUNDAY-MONDAY AND MONDAY-
TUESDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH COLDER AIR, WITH A 30-40% CHANCE
OF TEMPERATURES BELOW 32F.
A COLDER AIRMASS LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION SOLIDLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR (~5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL). A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGING
WIDELY SCATTER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEPARTS THE REGION
THROUGH THE EVENING, ALLOWING NORTHERN AREA PRECIPITATION TO COME
TO AN END DURING THE EVENING/ OVERNIGHT HOURS. TOMORROW,
CONDITIONS STABILIZE AS FLOW BECOMES LESS DISTURBED, HOWEVER,
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL EXIST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN UTAH WHICH WILL
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES RISE BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA,
THOUGH TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE PERSISTS IN THE ARRIVAL OF A POTENT STORM SYSTEM
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND, WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH AND PRE-
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND ENHANCED CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. ENSEMBLE FORECASTS KEEP THE MAJORITY OF NORTHERN UTAH
BELOW 35 MPH FOR PEAK GUSTS SATURDAY, WHERE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
UTAH WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH.
NORTHWESTERN UTAH WILL SEE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE DOWNBURSTS.
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ON SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH MUCH GREATER UNCERTAINTY AROUND ONSET TIMING LATE
SATURDAY AND CESSATION TIMING, WITH SLOWER SOLUTIONS MAINTAINING
LINGERING PRECIPITATION THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. GOOD CONSENSUS EXISTS THAT HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
SUNDAY MORNING, WITH THE HIGHER 48-HOUR TOTALS RELYING ON THE
EARLIEST ONSET AND LATEST CESSATION TIMINGS. AS PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUD COVER CLEARS OUT, MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN, AND UNDER
CLEARING SKIES, SOUTHERN UTAH WILL SEE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES NEAR
FREEZING, RUNNING 5-10F BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
AVIATION...KSLC
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AROUND 00Z. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AFTER, WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AFTER 06Z.
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHEAST AROUND
04Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL TAPER OFF AROUND 00Z. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 00Z. DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AFTER, WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING AFTER 06Z.
FIRE WEATHER
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE REGION TODAY,
ALLOWING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING. LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH ON FRIDAY, LEADING TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN. THAT SAID, WARM AIR WILL BEGIN SURGING FROM THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW, HELPING TO RAISE
TEMPERATURES AND DRY OUT CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHERN AREA. BY
SATURDAY, SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AHEAD OF A COLD
LATE-SEASON TROUGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO RISE AND SURFACE CONDITIONS DRYING FURTHER, EXPECT
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF UTAH (ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST UTAH). THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS.
MUCH COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS ARRIVE IN UTAH BY SUNDAY AS A
SIGNIFICANT LATE SEASON COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. A
WIDESPREAD SHOT OF SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAIN IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS
A MAJORITY OF UTAH, WITH THE LEAST AMOUNTS (POTENTIALLY LESS THAN
0.1IN) IN SOUTHEASTERN UTAH. THIS COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO
MAKE A RAPID RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WEBBER / WESSLER
AVIATION...WILSON
FIRE WEATHER...WEBBER
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