915
FXUS65 KSLC 160945
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
345 AM MDT FRI MAY 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WILD ROLLER COASTER OF WEATHER WILL BRING MILD,
SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS TODAY. A COLD, WINTER-LIKE SYSTEM WILL
BRING SNOW TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, VALLEY RAIN, AND TEMPERATURES
MORE AKIN TO MID-MARCH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A QUICK WARM-UP IS
LIKELY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THE WHIRLWIND FORECAST OF THREE SEASONS IN ONE WEEK
IS ON TRACK. EARLY MORNING UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS
INDICATES A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE PACIFIC
COAST, WITH A WELL DEFINED AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NEARING
THE OREGON COAST ASSOCIATED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG JET MAX.
FOR TODAY, A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE...THOUGH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT TOO MUCH.
BY SATURDAY MORNING, DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH 700MB FLOW NEAR 40KTS OR SO, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN UTAH, EXPECT A FEW POCKETS OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45
MPH. LIKE YESTERDAY, THE THREAT OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH
FOR 3+ HOURS IS AROUND 35%. THUS, WILL NOT BE ISSUING A WIND
ADVISORY ON THIS SHIFT BUT WILL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO COORDINATE
WITH TRANSPORTATION PARTNERS.
BUT WAIT, THERE'S MORE FOR SATURDAY. A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. STRONG
FORCING AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH DESTABILIZATION
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH (SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 500-1000 J/KG
COMBINED WITH 30-40KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR) WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. CURRENT CAMS SUPPORT A STORM MORPHOLOGY OF MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS OR EVEN A MORE LINEAR FEATURE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS AND THE ATTENDANT DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER...STRONG MICROBURST WINDS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ADDED PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTHERN UTAH TO A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS UTAH SATURDAY EVENING INTO LATE SUNDAY
MORNING. WITH STRONG SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR FRONTOGENESIS, EXPECT
THIS FRONT TO DELIVER A PUNCH, WITH HEAVY VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW. AS THE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT SHIFTS TO THE EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SHOWERY MODE AND FAVOR AREAS
THAT DO WELL IN NORTHWEST FLOW. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND
7000 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION, THIS
TIME FOCUSED ON CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE, EXPECT NORTHERN VALLEYS TO
SEE AROUND 0.50-1.00" OF RAIN, CENTRAL VALLEYS AROUND 0.33-0.75"
AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS AROUND 0.25-0.50" (LESS LOWER WASHINGTON
COUNTY). MOUNTAIN SNOW TOTALS (25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE) WILL
AVERAGE AROUND 5-10 INCHES ABOVE 8000 FEET, LOCALLY UP TO 15
INCHES IN THE TUSHAR RANGE. GIVEN THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ADVISORY
EVENT FOR THE MOUNTAINS, WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY PRODUCTS...BUT
AGAIN...DAY SHIFT WILL LIKELY COORDINATE WITH TRANSPORTATION
PARTNERS EITHER TODAY OR SATURDAY.
THOSE WITH FREEZE SENSITIVE EARLY AGRICULTURE SHOULD BE PREPARED
FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND FROST MONDAY MORNING ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE WASATCH FRONT. WHILE TUESDAY MORNING
LOOKS A FEW DEGREES WARMER, FROST WILL AGAIN BE A THREAT IN MANY
LOCATIONS OUTSIDE THE WASATCH FRONT.
ONCE THE FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE OVER, STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST BY THE BULK OF THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH A QUICK RETURN TO
TEMPERATURES MORE REMINISCENT OF EARLY SUMMER. SALT LAKE CITY WILL
GO FROM HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S SUNDAY TO LOW 80S BY THURSDAY.
AVIATION...KSLC
WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TODAY, FOLLOWING
DIURNAL TRENDS WITH A SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 17Z BEFORE
TRANSITIONING SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER 03Z. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY, WITH INCREASING MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS SATURDAY.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVERAGE INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WEATHER
SYSTEM. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN UTAH AND HIGH TERRAIN ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH, OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRSPACE. MORE
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL, AND
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH TODAY
WILL ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND MILD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY, WITH GENERALLY POOR OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD LATE-
SEASON STORM NUDGES INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY, INTRODUCING
ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE, WITH DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE LOW
TEENS. INCREASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ALSO BRINGS THE
CHANCE FOR HIGH- BASED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD PRODUCE A
FEW ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES. A MARKED SHIFT IN THE PATTERN
IS EXPECTED BY LATE SATURDAY, AS MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARRIVE AS
THE COLD SYSTEM TRACKS INTO UTAH, YIELDING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW EARLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY DEVELOPS THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK, BRINGING MUCH WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
KRUSE/WHITLAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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