343
FXUS65 KSLC 080935
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
335 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MID TO
LATE WEEK WILL BRING THE THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND EASTERN UTAH.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY)
EARLY MORNING UPPER AIR AND
SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATES A REX BLOCK PATTERN CONTINUES NEAR
THE PACIFIC COAST WITH A CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OFFSHORE THE BAY
AREA, WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM OFF THE PACNW COAST
TO THE GREAT BASIN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA. MUCH OF UTAH REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW.
LOOKING AT THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN,
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 0.60" OR SO ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH, QUITE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH, WITH
HREF 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE SBCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 100 TO 500
J/KG AND LITTLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR, EXPECT SLOW MOVING CONVECTION
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF CONVECTION IS ABLE TO TRAIN
OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS, ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS AGAIN
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPITOL REEF NATIONAL PARK. KEPT THE
GOING "POSSIBLE" RATING FOR FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL TODAY FOR THE
GRAND STAIRCASE, CAPITOL REEF, GLEN CANYON AND ZION NATIONAL PARK.
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTING OVERHEAD MONDAY, CONVECTION
THREAT WILL BE MORE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT
VALLEYS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING
INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ACROSS THE WASATCH FRONT AND LOW
100S NEAR ST. GEORGE. WHILE HEAT RISK WILL NOT BE ELEVATED
SUFFICIENTLY FOR ANY PRODUCTS, A REMINDER TO BE HEAT SAFE WHILE
PARTAKING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. BRING 0.5 TO 1 LITER OF WATER
WHILE HIKING. THERE HAVE BEEN A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF RESCUES
ALREADY THIS SUMMER FOR UNDERPREPARED HIKERS.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z TUESDAY)
HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG-TERM PERIOD, WITH THE ONLY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS. ON TUESDAY, DESPITE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSING THE
AREA, REMNANT MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
BY WEDNESDAY HOWEVER, AS A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH GRAZES JUST TO
OUR NORTH, THESE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO
NORTHERN UTAH/SOUTHWEST WYOMING.
HEADING INTO THURSDAY, A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
PACNW WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 7 (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR
DETAILS). ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS TROUGH WILL BE FAIRLY
STAGNANT THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND, WITH UNCERTAINTY STARTING
TO INCREASE THEREAFTER. FOR EXAMPLE, THE 25TH-75TH PERCENTILE
SPREAD FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE REMAINS FAIRLY SMALL, ONLY STARTING
TO INCREASE NEXT MONDAY, PERHAPS SUGGESTING THE TROUGH STARTS TO
INCH TOWARDS OUR AREA.
AVIATION...KSLC
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 8-10KTS WILL
TRANSITION TO NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 9-12KTS AFTER 16-17Z TODAY,
WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
UTAH AFTER ~18Z, LASTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THESE SHOWERS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS
AROUND 25-35KTS. WINDS WILL FAVOR A NORTHERLY DIRECTION THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE STATE, BECOMING LARGELY TERRAIN-DRIVEN AGAIN
BY LATE EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
REGION, CONVECTION WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERN UTAH TODAY TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN UTAH WHERE FUELS ARE SUFFICIENTLY DRY. AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM SETS UP OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, A LONG
DURATION FIRE WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP WITH HOT, BREEZY AND DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS UTAH. LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WHERE FUELS ARE DRY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN UTAH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AND SPREAD THE THREAT INTO EASTERN UTAH.
GIVEN THIS AIRMASS, DEEP MIXING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS (GENERALLY 60TH TO 80TH PERCENTILE THROUGH MONDAY,
75-95TH PERCENTILE TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY).
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
KRUSE/CUNNINGHAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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