282
FXUS65 KSLC 082152
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
352 PM MDT SUN JUN 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOT AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
FOLLOW FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z/6AM TUESDAY)
REX BLOCK REMAINS IN PLACE
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE
EXPANDING EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/INTERIOR
PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. MEANWHILE, THE
ASSOCIATED LOW IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST, WITH AN
ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN. THIS REGION OF WEAK ASCENT HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO AID ANOTHER
ROUND OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON. MINIMAL SHEAR AND FAIRLY MEAGER INSTABILITY IS
RESULTING IN PULSE CONVECTION, AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 30S
ALLOWING FOR A VERY DEEP SUB-CLOUD LAYER, CONVECTION HAS QUICKLY
BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT THIS AFTERNOON AS IT SPREADS OFF THE
TERRAIN. ANTICIPATE THIS ACTIVITY TO QUICKLY DIE OFF WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY,
RESULTING IN ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ANOTHER 1-3 DEGREES WARMER
ACROSS THE NORTH, AND REMAIN NEAR PERSISTENCE ACROSS THE SOUTH.
MEANWHILE, THE UPSTREAM LOW WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN/LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, AND AGAIN SUPPORT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION INITIALLY ALONG THE TERRAIN, BUT POTENTIALLY
SPREADING INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WITH
THE LOW IN CLOSER PROXIMITY, CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY
EXPAND FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE MANTI-SKYLINE AND ACROSS THE
WASATCH PLATEAU/WESTERN UINTAS. AGAIN, LIMITED MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN HIGH BASED CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
OUTFLOW.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/6AM TUESDAY), ISSUED 335 AM MDT
HOT AND
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG-TERM PERIOD,
WITH THE ONLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. ON TUESDAY, DESPITE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
CROSSING THE AREA, REMNANT MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE STATE. BY WEDNESDAY HOWEVER, AS A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
GRAZES JUST TO OUR NORTH, THESE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED TO NORTHERN UTAH/SOUTHWEST WYOMING.
HEADING INTO THURSDAY, A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE PACNW
WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 7 (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR DETAILS).
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS TROUGH WILL BE FAIRLY STAGNANT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND, WITH UNCERTAINTY STARTING TO INCREASE
THEREAFTER. FOR EXAMPLE, THE 25TH-75TH PERCENTILE SPREAD FOR MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE REMAINS FAIRLY SMALL, ONLY STARTING TO INCREASE NEXT
MONDAY, PERHAPS SUGGESTING THE TROUGH STARTS TO INCH TOWARDS OUR
AREA.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE KSLC
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW THIS
EVENING.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AIRSPACE WITH LIGHT AND DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WINDS. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE TERRAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AIRSPACE WILL ONLY HAVE A SMALL (<30%) CHANCE OF IMPACTING
THE TERMINALS. VARIABLE AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM DISSIPATING
NEARBY CONVECTION IS MORE LIKELY WITH CLEARING THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK,
MAINTAINING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, LOW DAYTIME RH, AND
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH
THIS RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS, MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF I-80. WITH THIS RIDGE IN PLACE,
THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME FAIRLY UNSTABLE MONDAY WITH MIXING HEIGHTS
ABOVE THE 70TH PERCENTILE. BY TUESDAY THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME
QUITE UNSTABLE WITH VERY DEEP MIXING ABOVE THE 80TH PERCENTILE,
AND IN A GOOD PORTION OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL UTAH EXCEEDING THE
90TH PERCENTILE.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY, AND CONTINUING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND VERY LOW RH BELOW 15
PERCENT IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST UTAH. BY FRIDAY, AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 10 PERCENT ACROSS MOST LOWER
ELEVATION ZONES WITH MARGINAL TO POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. THIS
COMBINED WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ANYWHERE FUELS HAVE
SUFFICIENTLY CURED.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SEAMAN
LONG TERM...CUNNINGHAM
AVIATION...MAHAN
FIRE WEATHER...SEAMAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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