936
FXUS65 KSLC 090918
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
318 AM MDT MON JUN 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOT AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
FOLLOW FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY)
EARLY MORNING UPPER AIR AND
SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO
SHIFT INTO THE INTERIOR WEST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE
EVIDENT OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. ANOTHER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
GULF OF ALASKA.
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTING INTO THE REGION, CONVECTIVE
GENESIS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE SBCAPE VALUES ARE A BIT LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY, AROUND 100 TO 400 J/KG. WITH LITTLE SHEAR,
UPDRAFTS WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN COHERENCE FOR MORE
THAN 10-15 MINUTES. ANY FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
TRAINING CONVECTION OVER VULNERABLE LOCATIONS. WITH THE LOWER
LEVELS DRYING OUT A BIT MORE, A MICROBURST OR TWO CANT BE RULED
OUT EITHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM...WITH HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 90F
ACROSS THE WASATCH FRONT AND 100F ACROSS THE ST. GEORGE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY)
WEDNESDAY MARKS THE LAST DAY
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH/SOUTHWEST
WYOMING, WITH REMNANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STILL HOLDING ON. STORMS
WILL LIKELY HAVE A LITTLE MORE POTENCY THAN PRIOR DAYS GIVEN A
STRONG BUT FAST- MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPPING NORTHWESTERN
UTAH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN DRY LOW LEVELS, STEEP LAPSE RATES,
APPRECIABLE SHEAR, AND MODEST INSTABILITY, THIS ENHANCES OUR
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT; THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS UPGRADED
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING TO A SOMEWHAT
UNUSUAL DAY 3 MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER,
WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS GIVEN THE
ENVIRONMENT.
BY THURSDAY, OUR CONCERNS SHIFT MORE TOWARDS FIRE WEATHER, WITH
DRY WESTERLY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE STATE
FOR THE REST OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS TO OUR
WEST (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS). ONE PIECE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON IS A PRETTY DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE SUNDAY, WHICH MAY ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS.
REGARDING OTHER SENSIBLE WEATHER, EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, WITH
TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 5-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BE SURE TO CARRY PLENTY OF WATER IF RECREATING OR
WORKING OUTDOORS THIS WEEKEND!
AVIATION...KSLC
LIGHT, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AFTER ROUGHLY 17-18Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
WHILE NORTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH AFTER
~18Z. THESE STORMS MAY EXTEND FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE UT-NV
BORDER, POTENTIALLY HAS FAR NORTH AS KENV. ANY SHOWERS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS AROUND
25-35KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT INTO THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF
HIGHER TERRAIN CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
CROSS NORTHERN UTAH BRINGING THE THREAT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
TO NORTHERN UTAH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEANWHILE, A
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC COAST AND REMAIN SOMEWHAT
STATIONARY THOUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL INTRODUCE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STARTING WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT DAILY MINIMUM HUMIDITIES TO
FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH. BY THE WEEKEND, HUMIDITIES WILL FALL
BELOW 10 PERCENT IN THESE SAME AREAS, WITH INCREASINGLY POOR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO LOCATIONS WITH CURED, DRY FUELS WEDNESDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE TODAY AND REMAIN SO IN
MANY LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH
SUNDAY (MIXING HEIGHTS WILL AVERAGE AROUND THE 80TH TO 97TH
PERCENTILE THROUGH THE PERIOD).
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
KRUSE/CUNNINGHAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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