998
FXUS65 KSLC 100836
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
236 AM MDT TUE JUN 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
ONE LAST DAY OF TERRAIN DRIVEN CONVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN UTAH WILL GIVE WAY TO STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE CROSSING NORTHERN UTAH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOT, DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY)
EARLY MORNING UPPER AIR AND
SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING SOUTH
NEAR THE US/MEXICAN BORDER IN ARIZONA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MULTIPLE SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE NOTED IN THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW APPROACHING
THE PACIFIC COAST...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL NEAR THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST THIS EVENING.
EXPECT LESS COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TODAY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WITH MEAGER
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR, UPDRAFT MAINTENANCE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE. THE MAIN THREAT TODAY CONTINUES TO BE THE
POTENTIAL OF WEAK CONVECTION TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME
LOCATION...BRINGING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN.
WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING SPICY CONVECTION-WISE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF UTAH. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE WESTERN UTAH BORDER NEAR JACKPOT, NV BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, HREF 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE
SBCAPE VALUES LOOK TO RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG OR SO ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-40
KTS WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
HIGHEST THREAT WILL BE STRONG, GUSTY WINDS GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND A DEEP DRY SUBCLOUD ENVIRONMENT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1/5) RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE, DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BUILD INTO SOUTHERN UTAH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS THREAT.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z THURSDAY)
FOLLOWING THIS RECENT ACTIVE
PERIOD, A BENIGN LONG-TERM FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTION IS
WELCOMED. STRONG RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS WHICH WILL ELIMINATE ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE
ENTIRETY OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY, THIS WILL ENABLE
TEMPERATURES TO RAISE EVEN FURTHER ACROSS UT AND SOUTHWEST WY
WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TO KICK OFF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST, GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
BY THIS WEEKEND FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WITH HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AREAWIDE (SEE FIRE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS).
THE CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER IS AMPLIFIED AS WE APPEAR TO HAVE
ENHANCED DRY SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY AFTERNOONS WITH
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS FLOW INCREASES ALOFT DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. TO SUM IT
ALL UP, DRY, HOT, AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. BE SURE TO DRESS APPROPRIATELY
IF RECREATING OUTSIDE, DRINK PLENTY OF WATER, AND LIMIT TIME IN
THE SUN!
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MINIMAL CONCERNS AT THE KSLC TERMINAL. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW A DIURNAL TREND WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY DRAINAGE
WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH AROUND 18Z WHERE A NORTHWESTERLY SHIFT
IS EXPECTED.
AVIATION...REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL SITES WITH MINIMAL OPERATIONAL CONCERNS
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS ALL SITES AND
GENERALLY TERRAIN / DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ONE LAST DAY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN UTAH AS THE LAST OF THE REMNANT MOISTURE IS
SWEPT OUT OF THE REGION BY INCREASING DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
WEDNESDAY. A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF UTAH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MEANWHILE, DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
WESTERN UTAH.
A PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL
SPREAD THE HOT, DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BY FRIDAY, SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES WITH
POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. EXPECT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR LOCATIONS
WITH DRY, CURED FUELS AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH,
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE STATE BY
THURSDAY...CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
AN UNSTABLE PATTERN WILL BRING DEEP MIXING THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
MONDAY (MIXING HEIGHTS WILL LARGELY BE 85-95+ PERCENTILE).
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
KRUSE/WORSTER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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