124
FXUS65 KSLC 102156
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
356 PM MDT TUE JUN 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE CROSSING NORTHERN UTAH.
HOT, DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN SETTLE INTO THE STATE
LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY)
A VERY SUBTLE DISTURBANCE IS
RIPPLING ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS HELPED TO
GENERATE CONVECTION ACROSS NEVADA WHICH IS MOVING INTO
NORTHWESTERN UTAH. GIVEN A DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL BE A THREAT BEFORE CONVECTION WINDS DOWN LATER THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE, LARGELY DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE SPINE OF UTAH INTO THIS EVENING.
A MORE ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SET TO EJECT ACROSS SOUTHERN
IDAHO AND FAR NORTHERN UTAH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS FAST-MOVING
TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY SYNOPTIC
WINDS TO THE AREA, WITH THE RESULT BEING MORE WIDESPREAD BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE, INCREASED SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. THE
HREF ENSEMBLE MEAN 0-6KM SHEAR IS BETWEEN 30-40KT, WHILE MEAN
SBCAPE VALUES ARE BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. THE GREATEST THREAT WITH
THE CONVECTION WILL BE STRONG MICROBURST WINDS, WHILE SOME OF THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL, ALTHOUGH THE LATTER
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED. OTHERWISE, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AREA ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL UTAH MOUNTAINS
AND INTO THE EASTERN VALLEYS. WHILE OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ALSO BE A
THREAT WITH THESE SHOWERS, THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG MICROBURSTS
THERE WILL BE LOWER THAN FOR NORTHERN UTAH. WEST-CENTRAL THROUGH
SOUTH-CENTRAL UTAH SHOULD TREND DRIER WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY. CONVECTION SHOULD LARGELY END BY EARLY TOMORROW
EVENING, WITH DECREASING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z THURSDAY), ISSUED 236 AM MDT
FOLLOWING THIS RECENT ACTIVE PERIOD, A BENIGN LONG-TERM FORECAST
WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTION IS WELCOMED. STRONG RIDGING IS FORECAST
TO BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WHICH WILL ELIMINATE ANY CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
ADDITIONALLY, THIS WILL ENABLE TEMPERATURES TO RAISE EVEN FURTHER
ACROSS UT AND SOUTHWEST WY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TO KICK OFF THE EXTENDED FORECAST, GRADUALLY
INCREASING TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THIS WEEKEND FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED, FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AREAWIDE (SEE FIRE
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS).
THE CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER IS AMPLIFIED AS WE APPEAR TO HAVE
ENHANCED DRY SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY AFTERNOONS WITH
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS FLOW INCREASES ALOFT DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. TO SUM IT
ALL UP, DRY, HOT, AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. BE SURE TO DRESS APPROPRIATELY
IF RECREATING OUTSIDE, DRINK PLENTY OF WATER, AND LIMIT TIME IN
THE SUN!
AVIATION...KSLC
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH MINIMAL OPERATIONAL
CONCERNS FORECAST FOR THE TERMINAL. SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 03-04Z AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN FLOW
PATTERNS REMAINING DOMINANT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE GUSTY AND
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS FOR AREAS NEAR SHOWERS, BUT THESE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE NEAR SUNDOWN. TOMORROW,
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOME MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN
INCREASED RISK OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING.
FIRE WEATHER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS TODAY ACROSS MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN UTAH
VALLEYS. THESE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND GENERALLY ISOLATED LIGHTNING, WITH A VERY LOW CHANCE OF
WETTING RAIN. TOMORROW, A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL RIPPLE ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN UTAH. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA, WHILE NORTHERN UTAH WILL SEE INCREASED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING OUTFLOW WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS, BUT WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL REMAINS VERY LOW.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WIND DOWN BY EARLY TOMORROW
EVENING, BEGINNING A TREND OF DRIER AND WARM CONDITIONS THAT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE, A BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED DURING THIS TIME, WITH
WINDS THAT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT
IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN LOCATIONS WHERE FUELS HAVE
CURED.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
CHENG/WORSTER/WEBBER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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