338
FXUS65 KSLC 110954
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
354 AM MDT WED JUN 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE CROSSING NORTHERN UTAH.
HOT, DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN SETTLE INTO THE STATE
LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY)
EARLY MORNING UPPER AIR AND
SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATES A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
THE REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SKIRTS THE NORTHERN
UTAH/SOUTHERN IDAHO BORDER REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
BOTH STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER SOUTH AND
EAST TO UINTA COUNTY, WY TO THE WESTERN UINTA BASIN. MUCH OF THE
REST OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH WILL BE AT A HEIGHTENED THREAT
OF GUSTY, MICROBURST WINDS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A MARGINAL RISK TODAY FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH, EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SETS UP OFF THE PACIFIC COAST AND REMAINS LARGELY IN PLACE
INTO THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD, HOT, DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z FRIDAY)
A CALM, DRY, AND HOT PERIOD
APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES FOR
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. ANOMALOUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES ALSO
APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS UT AND SOUTHWEST WY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TO KICK OFF THE
FORECAST, GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BT THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WITH
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE
AREAWIDE (SEE FIRE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS).
THE CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER CONTINUES AS ENHANCED DRY
SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY. WITH FAVORABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING, THESE WINDS WILL MAKE IT DOWN TO THE
SURFACE WITH EASE RESULTING IN GUSTY AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TO SUM IT ALL UP, DRY, HOT,
AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. BE SURE TO DRESS APPROPRIATELY IF RECREATING
OUTSIDE, DRINK PLENTY OF WATER, AND LIMIT TIME IN THE SUN!
AVIATION... KSLC
A WINDY DAY APPEARS LIKELY AT THE KSLC
TERMINAL WITH GUSTS OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 20KTS BEGINNING AROUND
18Z. BY 21Z, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND CONTINUE
CLOCKING TO NORTHWESTERLY BY 01Z WITH GUSTS GREATER THAN 20KTS
CONTINUING THROUGHOUT. BY 03Z, GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE, THOUGH
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10KTS WILL PERSIST OUT OF THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST INTO THE EVENING.
AVIATION... REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON BEGINNING AS
EARLY AS 18Z WITH GUSTS SUBSIDING AROUND 03Z ACROSS ALL SITES.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KLGU, KEVW, AND KOGD FROM 20-00Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 40KTS POSSIBLE.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER WITH THESE STORMS, THOUGH
PROBABILITIES APPEAR TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE A -TSRA
GROUP. THIS MAY BE ADJUSTED IN FUTURE TAF PACKAGES.
FIRE WEATHER
A RELATIVELY STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE
THREAT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY MICROBURST WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF HAIL NEAR THE UTAH/IDAHO
BORDER. MEANWHILE, DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
SOUTHERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BREEZY, DRY
CONDITIONS. THESE HOT, DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. FOR THOSE AREAS WITH DRY FUELS, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN UTAH AND
SPREAD THROUGH THE REMAINER OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH
THURSDAY.
DEEP MIXING WILL CONTINUE, WITH MIXING HEIGHTS AVERAGING AROUND
THE 80-97TH PERCENTILE THROUGH THURSDAY, EXCEEDING 90-99TH
PERCENTILE BY SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH, AND 70-90TH
PERCENTILE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
KRUSE/WORSTER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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