477
FXUS65 KSLC 121002
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
402 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS DEVELOP AND ARE MAINTAINED
INTO THE WEEKEND. THESE VALUES LOOK TO PEAK AROUND SUNDAY, WITH
FORECAST HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z/6AM FRIDAY)
EARLY THIS MORNING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED NEAR JUAB
COUNTY IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVED
THROUGH IDAHO. THE MAIN RESULT IS A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH, DEMARCATED BY DEW POINTS IN THE
40S NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND IN THE 20S/30S SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY. WHILE FORCING WILL BE MORE SUBTLE TODAY, A WEAK
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY HELP TO INITIATE
CONVECTION OFF THE UINTAS AND INTO UINTA CO WY, AS WELL AS
ISOLATED CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF NORTHEASTERN NEVADA INTO
NORTHERN UTAH. GIVEN THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE, EXPECT
IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR ANY STORMS TO GROW UPSCALE AND SUSTAIN
AWAY FROM TOPOGRAPHY ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH, HOWEVER ANY STORMS THAT
DO WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAINLY IN THE 45-55 MPH
RANGE. OTHERWISE, DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF
THS BOUNDARY THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH WITH SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES (5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE) IN PLACE ACROSS THE
STATE TODAY.
OTHERWISE, EVEN MORE DRYING OCCURS INTO FRIDAY AS DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW HELPS SWEEP LINGER MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH TODAY OUT
OF THE STATE, ENTRENCHING THE FORECAST AREA IN A VERY DRY AIRMASS
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, STARTING A PROLONGED DRY SPELL ACROSS
THE STATE (BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW). OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL
CHANGE LITTLE INTO FRIDAY, CONTINUING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/6AM FRIDAY)
THE LIKELIHOOD FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT, DRY, AND WINDY
CONDITIONS CONTINUES TO TREND UPWARD WITHIN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
STRONG RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS PROVIDING STRONG
SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK.
ANOMALOUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES ALSO INCREASE IN LIKELIHOOD ACROSS UT
AND SOUTHWEST WY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TO KICK OFF THE EXTENDED FORECAST, GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED, FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS INCREASE AREAWIDE (SEE FIRE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS).
THE CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER CONTINUES AS ENHANCED DRY
SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST. WITH FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING, THESE
WINDS WILL MAKE IT DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH EAST RESULTING IN GUSTY
AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO NEXT WEEK. TO SUM IT ALL
UP, DRY, HOT, AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRETY
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. BE SURE TO DRESS APPROPRIATELY IF
RECREATING OUTSIDE, DRINK PLENTY OF WATER, AND LIMIT TIME IN THE SUN!
AVIATION
KSLC...WINDS WILL PERSIST OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL SHIFTS TO NORTHWESTERLY. BY 15Z, WINDS WILL CLOCK TO
DUE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10KTS. FOLLOWING THIS, AROUND
20-21Z, WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 13-15KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20KTS POSSIBLE. AROUND 03-05Z, DRAINAGE WINDS WILL ONCE
AGAIN TAKE HOLD OUT OF THE SOUTH.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS ALL SITES WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KTS
POSSIBLE FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KLGU. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A
CHANCE KBCE AND KCDC REACH 30KTS IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. WINDS
WILL DIE DOWN AND BECOME PREDOMINATELY TERRAIN DRIVEN BY 03Z.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK BRINGING INCREASINGLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN ALONG THE WEST COAST BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINING INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY, WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT IN SOME MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEPENDING ON
FUELS WHICH LARGELY REMAIN NEAR-CRITICAL FOR SOME PORTIONS OF THE
STATE PER COORDINATION WITH THE GACC. ALSO OF NOTE, BY FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE INCREASINGLY
POOR.
PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...WORSTER
AVIATION...WORSTER
FIRE WEATHER...CHURCH
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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