331
FXUS65 KSLC 122139
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
339 PM MDT THU JUN 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS DEVELOP AND ARE MAINTAINED
INTO THE WEEKEND. THESE VALUES LOOK TO PEAK AROUND SUNDAY, WITH
FORECAST HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z/6AM SATURDAY)
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR
ANALYSIS SHOWS ANOTHER FAIRLY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE BRUSHING BY
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE A DRYING TREND HAS LARGELY BEEN
REALIZED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, THERE REMAINS A POCKET OF MOISTURE
CHARACTERIZED WITH PWATS AROUND 100-150% OF NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WYOMING AND AREAS NEAR THE UT/ID BORDER. AS A RESULT, DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION IS ONCE AGAIN RESULTING IN SOME ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE, THE MEAGER LEVEL OF MOISTURE
OVERALL IS LEADING TO WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS AND A HIGHER BASED
NATURE TO THIS CONVECTION, AND AS SUCH ANYTHING THAT DOES FORM WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS,
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN STRENGTH AND COVERAGE MOVING ON THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS.
FOR FRIDAY, MOISTURE WILL FURTHER SCOUR OUT AS THE AREA REMAINS
PLACED WITHIN A DEEP AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. IN TURN,
ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE MINIMAL CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION.
THE AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE MILD HOWEVER, AND AS SUCH FORECAST HIGHS
AT MOST LOCATIONS WILL PUSH TO AROUND 7-15 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL FOR MID JUNE.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/6AM FRIDAY), ISSUED 402 AM MDT
THE LIKELIHOOD FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT, DRY, AND WINDY
CONDITIONS CONTINUES TO TREND UPWARD WITHIN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
STRONG RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS PROVIDING STRONG
SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK.
ANOMALOUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES ALSO INCREASE IN LIKELIHOOD ACROSS UT
AND SOUTHWEST WY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TO KICK OFF THE EXTENDED FORECAST, GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED, FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS INCREASE AREAWIDE (SEE FIRE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS).
THE CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER CONTINUES AS ENHANCED DRY
SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST. WITH FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING, THESE
WINDS WILL MAKE IT DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH EAST RESULTING IN GUSTY
AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO NEXT WEEK. TO SUM IT ALL
UP, DRY, HOT, AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRETY
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. BE SURE TO DRESS APPROPRIATELY IF
RECREATING OUTSIDE, DRINK PLENTY OF WATER, AND LIMIT TIME IN THE SUN!
AVIATION
KSLC...WINDS WILL PERSIST OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL SHIFTS TO NORTHWESTERLY. BY 15Z, WINDS WILL CLOCK TO
DUE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10KTS. FOLLOWING THIS, AROUND
20-21Z, WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 13-15KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20KTS POSSIBLE. AROUND 03-05Z, DRAINAGE WINDS WILL ONCE
AGAIN TAKE HOLD OUT OF THE SOUTH.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS ALL SITES WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KTS
POSSIBLE FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KLGU. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A
CHANCE KBCE AND KCDC REACH 30KTS IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. WINDS
WILL DIE DOWN AND BECOME PREDOMINATELY TERRAIN DRIVEN BY 03Z.
AVIATION...KSLC
MINIMAL OPERATIONAL CONCERNS ARE FORECAST FOR
THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. NORTHERLY UPVALLEY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A
SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW BETWEEN 03-04Z, HOWEVER, THERE IS ABOUT A
20% CHANCE THAT SOUTH FLOW DOES NOT DEVELOP UNTIL 05-06Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE EXCEPTION TO THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE AREAS AROUND THE GREAT SALT LAKE WHERE LAKE
BREEZES WILL INFLUENCE A W TO NW FLOW BETWEEN KBMC AND KSVR.
OTHERWISE, ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN EASTERN UINTA
COUNTY, WY AND NORTHWEST UTAH, LEADING TO AREAS OF GUSTY AND
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30KTS. THAT SAID, NO MAJOR
TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED. AFTER SUNDOWN, MOST
AIRFIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE DIURNALLY DRIVEN DOWNSLOPE/
DOWNVALLEY FLOWS.
FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED, WITH THE
PATTERN SUPPORTING MULTIPLE DAYS OF DRY CONDITIONS AND ANOMALOUS
WARMTH. ADDITIONALLY, WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERHEAD, WILL
SEE MODESTLY GUSTY CONDITIONS MOST AFTERNOONS. GIVEN INCREASINGLY
POOR OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES, WILL BE LOOKING AT MARGINAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT FUELS WITH SUFFICIENTLY CRITICAL FUELS.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WARTHEN
LONG TERM...WORSTER
AVIATION...WEBBER
FIRE WEATHER...WARTHEN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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