635
FXUS65 KSLC 132205
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
405 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS DEVELOP AND ARE MAINTAINED
INTO THE WEEKEND. THESE VALUES LOOK TO PEAK AROUND SUNDAY, WITH
FORECAST HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL. WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE ON MONDAY, WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING HOT AND DRY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z/6AM SUNDAY)
DEEP, HOT, AND DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
BASIN REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BONE DRY AFTERNOON HUMIDITY HAS
ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, WITH MINIMUM VALUES
FALLING TO AS LOW AS 5 PERCENT. THE TREND IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL GO LARGELY UNCHANGED DAY AFTER DAY AS THIS DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. IN ADDITION TO THE DRY
CONDITIONS, BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED WITH PEAK
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH. AGAIN, TRENDS IN AFTERNOON WINDS
WILL GO LARGELY UNCHANGED EACH DAY. AS SUCH, NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS A BROAD AREA WITH CRITICAL
CONDITIONS SCATTERED ABOUT THE REGION WHERE FUELS ARE CLOSER TO
CRITICALLY DRY STATUS.
ASIDE FROM THE DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SOLIDLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND (10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL). OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY FALL INTO
THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING ON THE WASATCH
FRONT WHICH RAISES AT LEAST SOME CONCERN FOR HEAT RELATED HAZARDS.
AT THIS POINT, ISSUANCE OF HEAT RELATED PRODUCTS IS NOT NEEDED AS
A TROUGH SHOULD BRING SOME RELIEF BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING... BUT
THOSE WITHOUT ACCESS TO PROPER COOLING MAY BE AT AN INCREASED RISK
FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESS OVER THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/6AM SUNDAY), ISSUED 331 AM MDT
THE LIKELIHOOD FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT, DRY, AND WINDY
CONDITIONS CONTINUES TO APPEAR LIKELY INTO NEXT WEEK. STRONG
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS PROVIDING STRONG
SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE, TROUGHING OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALOFT AS IT SLIDES EAST RESULTING IN ENHANCED
WINDS ALOFT. THESE WINDS WILL TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE YIELDING
GUSTY AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. ANOMALOUSLY
HOT TEMPERATURES ALSO INCREASE IN LIKELIHOOD ACROSS UT AND
SOUTHWEST WY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL,
GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WITH HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE AREAWIDE (SEE
FIRE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS).
THE CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER CONTINUES AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
ENHANCED DRY SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. WITH FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING, THESE WINDS WILL MAKE IT DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH EAST
RESULTING IN GUSTY AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO NEXT
WEEK. TO SUM IT ALL UP, DRY, HOT, AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. BE SURE TO
DRESS APPROPRIATELY IF RECREATING OUTSIDE, DRINK PLENTY OF WATER,
AND LIMIT TIME IN THE SUN!
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE, WITH
THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY SITTING JUST ON THE EDGE OF THE AIRFIELD
LEADING TO A PARTICULARLY SHARP CUTOFF BETWEEN NORTHERLY AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE VICINITY AND JUST OFF THE SURFACE. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY EVENING, EXPECTING NORTHERLIES TO HOLD ON A BIT LATER THAN
USUAL, IN THE VICINITY OF 05-06Z BEFORE DRAINAGE FLOWS TAKE OVER AND
RETURN WINDS FROM THE SOUTH. INCREASING CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD IN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
TYPICAL SUMMER HIGH PRESSURE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING
STATEWIDE. GUSTY DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS WILL DROP OFF LATE THIS
EVENING. ON SATURDAY, EXPECTING A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING, WITH ANY HIGH-BASED
SHOWERS TRIGGERING GUSTY WINDS IN THEIR VICINITY. AT THIS TIME THE
CONFIDENCE IN AND LIKELIHOOD OF WELL-ORGANIZED OUTFLOWS OR
DOWNBURSTS ARE VERY LOW.
FIRE WEATHER
A PERSISTENT TROUGH OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN
A VERY DRY AND BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS UTAH THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL SEE NEAR CRITICAL
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL UTAH AS AFTERNOON MINIMUM HUMIDITY FALLS INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND WINDS GUST UPWARDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. OVERNIGHT
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE POOR ACROSS MUCH OF UTAH
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY, WITH SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS TUESDAY, THEN
BACK TO POOR RECOVERY THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IN ADDITION TO
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS, WE'LL SEE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
SOLIDLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY, WITH SOME SLIGHT
RELIEF IN TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREA.
A DRY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PIVOT INLAND LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS INCREASE IN WINDS WILL PAIR WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, LEADING TO INCREASED CONCERN FOR
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS WINDS GUST UPWARDS
OF 35 MPH ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NOON MONDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WIDESPREAD HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
PAST TUESDAY.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR UTZ489-494>498.
WY...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WEBBER
LONG TERM...WORSTER
AVIATION...WESSLER
FIRE WEATHER...WEBBER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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