902
FXUS65 KSLC 140919
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
319 AM MDT SAT JUN 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
VERY DRY, MILD, AND INCREASINGLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. A PASSING TROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING
SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z/6AM MONDAY)
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED
OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO THIS MORNING, PUTTING UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING UNDER A HOT AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, WITH HIGHS 5-10F ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS, WITH THE GREATEST DEPARTURE FROM CLIMO OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC
WILL STEADILY MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
BECAUSE OF THIS, HIGHS WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY WITH WARM
ADVECTION AND INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE TROUGH
GETS CLOSER.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/6AM MONDAY)
SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND UTAH WILL
BE IN ENHANCED SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY BETWEEN A POWERFUL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE BORDER OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO AND
NORTHERN MEXICO AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH TRACKING INLAND FROM THE
PACIFIC. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL DAYS OF ENHANCED SOUTHWEST FLOW PRIOR
TO MONDAY, BUT MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE THE PEAK AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS WITH THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
TROUGH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY LOW THROUGHOUT,
WITH THE WHOLE REGION RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.
THIS WILL BRING INCREASED FIRE DANGER. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR SEVERAL ZONES THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN UTAH, WHERE WINDS WILL
BE STRONGEST AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWEST.
A DRY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS
UNLIKELY, BUT IT WILL BRING SOME RELIEF TO THE MUCH WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AFTER LOW TO MID 90S FOR MOST VALLEYS, WITH
100S FOR LOWER WASHINGTON COUNTY, LAKE POWELL, AND THE SAN RAFAEL
SWELL MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AROUND 5-10F FOR SOUTHWEST
WYOMING AND NORTHERN UTAH AND AROUND 3-6F ELSEWHERE IN UTAH. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COME WITH THE FRONT, BUT SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL
BE LIGHTER THAN THE SOUTHWEST WINDS THE DAY BEFORE.
THE TRACK OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN THE RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST RETROGRADING TO OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
BAJA CALIFORNIA. IT WILL QUICKLY ESTABLISH A SIMILAR POSITION TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. IT WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND UTAH TO
SIMILAR VALUES AS MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER, BUT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AGAIN.
THE SYNOPTIC SET UP WILL STAY CONSISTENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MOST VALLEYS, INCLUDING THE URBAN CORRIDOR,
WITH 100S FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND PARTS OF EASTERN UTAH. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH TRACKING
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC THURSDAY OR FRIDAY, WHICH WOULD FURTHER
ENHANCE SOUTHWEST FLOW.
AVIATION...KSLC
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING. GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS BY 15Z. WINDS
WILL LIGHTEN AND TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST AROUND 21Z WITH SCATTERED
CLOUDS BUILDING IN.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
LIGHT WINDS, GENERALLY FROM
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST, WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.
WINDS FROM THE SAME DIRECTIONS WILL INCREASE BY 15Z. GUSTS WILL BE
STRONGEST IN SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND SOUTHWEST UTAH, WHERE 20-30 KNOT
GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 03Z. SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL BUILD
IN AROUND 21Z.
FIRE WEATHER
A TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
HOT AND DRY OVER UTAH, WITH WINDS BECOMING INCREASINGLY BREEZY AS
THE TROUGH GETS CLOSER. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR CRITICAL TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERN UTAH GIVEN THE
GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, AND POOR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES. THE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY, BRINGING
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
TEMPERATURES, AND LIGHTER WINDS INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD THEREAFTER, WITH WINDS INCREASING
LATE IN THE WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR UTZ489-494>498.
WY...NONE.
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...TRAPHAGAN
LONG TERM/AVIATION...WILSON
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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