057
FXUS65 KSLC 142033
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
233 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
WHILE A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING SOME RESPITE FROM THE
HEAT EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEAK, HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS OTHERWISE DOMINATE. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
MOST OF UTAH'S LOW ELEVATION VALLEYS.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z/6AM MONDAY)
MID LEVEL WATER VAPOR LOOP
SHOWS THE GREAT BASIN POSITIONED BETWEEN A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM MEXICO INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND A NEAR-STATIONARY
TROUGH IN THE PACNW. A MODEST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN
ADVECTING THROUGH OVERHEAD WITHIN THE CORRESPONDING DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WHICH IS RESULTING IN A BIT OF MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE AND
PWATS ONLY GENERALLY AROUND 50-80% OF NORMAL, AREA RADARS REMAIN
QUIET AND NO DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WITH H7 TEMPS ROUGHLY 13C TO 18C,
AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE RUNNING MILD THOUGH, WITH HIGH MARKS IN THE
80S EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING, 90S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATION UTAH VALLEYS, AND LOW 100S FOR LOWER WASHINGTON COUNTY
AND LOWER ZION NP.
FOR SUNDAY, SYNOPTIC FEATURES CHANGE MINIMALLY, AS DOES THE
FORECAST EVOLUTION. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE MILD, AND
WITH H7 TEMPS NUDGING UPWARDS, SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS SEE A
CORRESPONDING BUMP UPWARD. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AROUND A 40%
CHANCE OF HITTING OR EXCEEDING 100F AT KSLC FOR THE FIRST TIME
THIS YEAR, WHICH IF IT HAPPENS WOULD BE SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL OF JULY 4TH. ALL THAT SAID, IT'LL BE HOT
MORE OR LESS EVERYWHERE. IF SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS, AND ESPECIALLY
IF RECREATING, TRY AND WEAR LIGHT COLORED CLOTHING, FIND WAYS TO
STAY COOL, AND HAVE MORE THAN AMPLE HYDRATION. WITH LITTLE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS WELL AS CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE, PRECIP CHANCES
REMAIN CLOSE TO ZERO.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/6AM MONDAY), ISSUED 319 AM MDT
SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND UTAH WILL BE IN ENHANCED SOUTHWEST FLOW
MONDAY BETWEEN A POWERFUL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE BORDER
OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO AND A
LONGWAVE TROUGH TRACKING INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC. THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL DAYS OF ENHANCED SOUTHWEST FLOW PRIOR TO MONDAY, BUT
MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE THE PEAK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS WITH THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE TROUGH. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY LOW THROUGHOUT, WITH THE WHOLE
REGION RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED FIRE DANGER. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
SEVERAL ZONES THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN UTAH, WHERE WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWEST.
A DRY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY, BUT IT WILL BRING SOME RELIEF TO THE
MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AFTER LOW TO MID 90S FOR
MOST VALLEYS, WITH 100S FOR LOWER WASHINGTON COUNTY, LAKE POWELL,
AND THE SAN RAFAEL SWELL MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AROUND
5-10F FOR SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND NORTHERN UTAH AND AROUND 3-6F
ELSEWHERE IN UTAH. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COME WITH THE
FRONT, BUT SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THE SOUTHWEST
WINDS THE DAY BEFORE.
THE TRACK OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN THE RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST RETROGRADING TO OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
BAJA CALIFORNIA. IT WILL QUICKLY ESTABLISH A SIMILAR POSITION TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. IT WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND
UTAH TO SIMILAR VALUES AS MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER, BUT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
AGAIN.
THE SYNOPTIC SET UP WILL STAY CONSISTENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MOST VALLEYS, INCLUDING THE URBAN CORRIDOR,
WITH 100S FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND PARTS OF EASTERN UTAH. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH TRACKING
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC THURSDAY OR FRIDAY, WHICH WOULD FURTHER
ENHANCE SOUTHWEST FLOW.
AVIATION...KSLC
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING. GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS BY 15Z. WINDS
WILL LIGHTEN AND TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST AROUND 21Z WITH
SCATTERED CLOUDS BUILDING IN.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
LIGHT WINDS, GENERALLY FROM
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST, WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.
WINDS FROM THE SAME DIRECTIONS WILL INCREASE BY 15Z. GUSTS WILL
BE STRONGEST IN SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND SOUTHWEST UTAH, WHERE 20-30
KNOT GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 03Z. SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL
BUILD IN AROUND 21Z.
FIRE WEATHER
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN POSITIONED BETWEEN A
NEAR STATIONARY TROUGH IN THE PACNW AND STRONG RIDGING EXTENDING
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
SUPPORT INCREASINGLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY, ALONG
WITH MODESTLY GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS. GIVEN POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY
AND WINDS PEAKING MONDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK AND LARGELY DRY
DISTURBANCE, PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE FUELS ARE SUFFICIENTLY DRY. FOLLOWING THE
WEAK DISTURBANCE, TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY AND HUMIDITIES RISE
SLIGHTLY. FORECAST CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THIS IS SHORT LIVED
HOWEVER, WITH SUPPORT FOR A QUICK RETURN TO HOT, DRY, AND MODESTLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH POOR OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY BY
THURSDAY.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR UTZ489-494>498.
WY...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WARTHEN
LONG TERM...WILSON
AVIATION...ADESMET
FIRE WEATHER...WARTHEN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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