340
FXUS65 KSLC 051004
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
404 AM MDT SAT JUL 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASINGLY HOT TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)
AFTER AN ACTIVE DAY YESTERDAY,
DRIER AIR IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS
MORNING AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TAPS INTO A DRY SLOT AHEAD OF A
LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. THE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z MONDAY)
BY MONDAY, OUR REGION WILL FIND
ITSELF WEDGED BETWEEN A CLOSED LOW RETROGRADING OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE A WEAK MOISTURE PUSH INTO
SOUTHERN UTAH, WITH PWATS LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 0.6-0.7". WHILE THESE
VALUES ARE QUITE MEAGER, EFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING MAY PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY , WITH THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RESULTING
IN TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. A RIDGE
BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE WESTERN US THROUGH AT LEAST
MID-WEEK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE AN UPWARD TREND,
REACHING AROUND 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD
AREAS OF MODERATE AND LOCALLY MAJOR HEATRISK IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
ENSEMBLES ARE NOW IN A TOSS-UP REGARDING THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY
ONWARD. RECENT GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE ON THURSDAY, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MORE
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA AND THUS MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
NORMAL. AT THIS POINT, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
PORTION OF THE LONG RANGE FORECAST GIVEN THE WIDER ENVELOPE OF
SCENARIOS.
AVIATION...KSLC
WINDS REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
AROUND 18Z, BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY THEREAFTER. CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL REGIONAL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING TERMINALS.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A LOW JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
THE RESULTANT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TAP INTO A DRY SLOT AHEAD
OF THE LOW, BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY NEAR NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER THE WEEKEND, BECOMING INCREASINGLY HOT
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD. DESPITE THE
INCREASINGLY DRY CONDITIONS, WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT,
KEEPING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...TRAPHAGAN
LONG TERM/AVIATION...WHITLAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page