259
FXUS65 KSLC 052049
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
249 PM MDT SAT JUL 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
A BUILDING RIDGE WILL FAVOR GENERALLY DRY AND
INCREASINGLY MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PEAK ON WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z/6AM MONDAY)
FORECAST REGION REMAINS
PLACED WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS A RESULT OF A TROUGH
TRANSLATING EASTWARD THROUGH MT/ID AND A RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. MOISTURE HAS LARGELY SCOURED OUT OF THE AREA,
THOUGH JUST ENOUGH IS LINGERING TO RESULT IN SOME BUILDING
CUMULUS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY THE UINTAS. WITH DIURNAL
HEATING ONGOING, COULD STILL SEE A COUPLE WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS
TRY TO DEVELOP OFF THE TERRAIN, BUT ANTICIPATE MOST PLACES REMAIN
DRY. OTHERWISE, A MUCH QUIETER DAY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING NEAR TO JUST A SLIGHT BIT ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL.
SYNOPTICALLY, LITTLE CHANGES LOCALLY FOR SUNDAY. THE ID/MT TROUGH
WILL BE DEPARTING FURTHER EASTWARD, BUT A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST IN COMBINATION WITH RIDGING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL HELP MAINTAIN A SIMILAR FLOW PATTERN OVERHEAD. SOME
MODELS DO CARRY JUST A TINY BIT OF MOISTURE UP AROUND THE RIDGE,
WITH CAMS IN TURN SHOWING A LOW END CHANCE OF A FEW WIDELY
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN PRIMARILY OFF THE TERRAIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVELS, COULD SEE
SOME MODEST OUTFLOW GUSTS IF SOMETHING FORMS, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
QUITE MINIMAL AT BEST. GIVEN ULTIMATELY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST PATTERN, TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CHANGE LITTLE FOR SUNDAY,
WITH FORECAST HIGHS VERY NEAR SATURDAY'S PEAK.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z MONDAY), ISSUED 404 AM MDT
BY MONDAY, OUR REGION WILL FIND ITSELF WEDGED BETWEEN A CLOSED
LOW RETROGRADING OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL
PROVIDE A WEAK MOISTURE PUSH INTO SOUTHERN UTAH, WITH PWATS
LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 0.6-0.7". WHILE THESE VALUES ARE QUITE MEAGER,
EFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY , WITH THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. A
RIDGE BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE WESTERN US THROUGH
AT LEAST MID-WEEK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE AN UPWARD
TREND, REACHING AROUND 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF MODERATE AND LOCALLY MAJOR HEATRISK IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ENSEMBLES ARE NOW IN A TOSS-UP REGARDING THE PATTERN FROM
THURSDAY ONWARD. RECENT GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE ON THURSDAY, WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA AND THUS MODERATE
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL. AT THIS POINT, THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST GIVEN THE WIDER ENVELOPE OF SCENARIOS.
AVIATION...KSLC
WINDS REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
AROUND 18Z, BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY THEREAFTER. CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL REGIONAL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING TERMINALS.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION SUNDAY AND EXPECTED TO MEANDER THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK. ADDITIONALLY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATED OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL AID IN USHERING IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
WITHIN THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, A LOW-MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT WILL PUSH
INTO THE AREA DECREASING RH VALUES AREAWIDE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START NEAR-NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEK BEFORE INCREASING TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS. THANKFULLY, WITH
STRONG RIDGING IN PLACE, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT
THE UPCOMING WEEK.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WARTHEN
LONG TERM...WHITLAM
AVIATION...WORSTER
FIRE WEATHER...WORSTER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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