040
FXUS65 KSLC 082027
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
227 PM MDT TUE JUL 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BRINGING
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW WILL
REMAIN QUITE HOT, THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN UT AND SOUTHWEST WY AS A TROUGH CLIPS
THE AREA TO OUR NORTH. ADDITIONALLY, WINDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UT.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z/6AM THURSDAY)
CLEAR SKIES PERSIST ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF OUR CWA AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE VIA RIDGING
PERSISTS OTHER THAN SCATTERED CUMULUS OVER OUR HIGHER TERRAIN.
NOTABLY HOT TEMPERATURES, PARTICULARLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL,
CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
WE CONTINUE OBSERVING SITES BREAKING INTO THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA WITH A FEW INSTANCES OF 100+ ACROSS LOWER
WASHINGTON COUNTY. TOMORROW IS EXPECTED TO BE EVEN HOTTER FEATURING
A CHANCE FOR THE WASATCH FRONT TO FLIRT WITH 100F, PARTICULARLY FOR
THE SLC AND PROVO AREAS. LOWER WASHINGTON COUNTY WILL ALSO FLIRT
WITH 110F TOMORROW AFTERNOON, SO BE SURE TO DRESS ACCORDINGLY, DRINK
PLENTY OF WATER IF OUTSIDE, AND LIMIT TIME IN THE SUN!
A CLOSED LOW UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF CA WILL TRAVERSE INLAND
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, BROADENING AS IT TRAVELS EAST BECOMING AN
OPEN WAVE. HOWEVER, SOME FORM OF DEEPENING APPEARS POSSIBLE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HI-RES GUIDANCE WHICH MAY SERVE TO PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL UT AND SOUTHWEST WY DESPITE LACK OF MOISTURE. GIVEN THE
PARAMETER SPACE, A FEW ISOLATED STRONG GUSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE FROM
THESE STORMS AS WELL AS LIGHTNING, THOUGH THIS SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED.
ADDITIONALLY, WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN SOME FORM OF FIRE DANGER TOMORROW. AS
SUCH, A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN UT. MORE ON THIS IS DISCUSSED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION.
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH, OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL SEE A DECLINE TO SEASONAL NORMALS WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/6AM THURSDAY), ISSUED 344 AM MDT
A DRY AND INCREASINGLY HOT
PATTERN IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN ACTIVE JET STREAM
ACROSS INTERIOR CANADA WITH A RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL KEEP A DRY WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS AT THE SURFACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES AS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT GRADUALLY INCREASE. ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN UTAH,
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY VERY HOT, GIVEN THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
RIDGE. TEMPERATURES EACH DAY ACROSS LOWER WASHINGTON COUNTY WILL BE
BETWEEN 105-108F. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN UTAH.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL INTO WEDNESDAY WITH WIND
DIRECTIONS FOLLOWING A TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN. BY MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY, SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS
MIXING IN. WINDS SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON, AND
FAVOR A WESTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED HIGH BASED
CONVECTION WILL ALSO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AFTER
21Z. GUSTY ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS MAY ARISE FROM ANYTHING NEAR THE
TERMINAL.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ONCE
AGAIN TUESDAY INTO THE START OF WEDNESDAY AT AREA TERMINALS, WITH
CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR. WINDS ONCE AGAIN FOLLOW A FAIRLY TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERN TUESDAY, WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT MORE
FAVORED WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND GUSTS WILL ALSO INCREASE SOME DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL HELP TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED HIGH BASED
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY, PRIMARILY ALONG/EAST OF UTAH'S HIGH TERRAIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN
GUSTY ERRATIC OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS WITH ANYTHING NEAR AREA TERMINALS.
FIRE WEATHER
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE, PREVIOUSLY NEAR-STATIONARY
OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST, WILL BEGIN TO TRACK INLAND OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE
GREAT BASIN, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES ENHANCED FROM THAT OF
PREVIOUS DAYS. ANTICIPATE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD GUSTS 25-35 MPH
PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
UTAH. WITH THE LOW DAYTIME RH VALUES (MIN RH AROUND 7-15%) IN
THESE AREAS, HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED
FLAG WARNING, GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. ADDITIONALLY, THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM WILL HELP INCREASE MID LEVEL MOISTURE, SUPPORTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY FOR AREAS ALONG/EAST OF UTAH'S HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THE HIGH
BASED NATURE OF THESE, GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST UTAH, LESS MOISTURE IS
NOTED BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF CONVECTION,
WHICH COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IF THEY
WERE TO DEVELOP. THESE WOULD ALSO CARRY A GUSTY ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WIND THREAT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE
WILL ADVANCE THROUGH UTAH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AT MOST LOCATIONS WILL
LARGELY BE DRY, MARKED MORE BY A WIND SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTHWEST.
BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN UTAH
COOL DOWN BRIEFLY, WHILE FURTHER SOUTH TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY.
WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE IN COMPARISON TO WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND, RESULTING IN INCREASING
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ492-493-
495>498.
WY...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WORSTER
LONG TERM...MAHAN
AVIATION...WARTHEN
FIRE WEATHER...WARTHEN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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