969
FXUS65 KSLC 132137
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
337 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS WEEK, WITH
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING
FROM MONDAY ONWARD.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z/6AM TUESDAY)
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN OVER SOUTHWESTERN UTAH
INTO MONDAY WHILE A WEAK, DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
NORTHERN UTAH. THIS WILL BRING A SUBTLE WARMING TREND OVER
SOUTHERN UTAH, SUPPORTING THE HOTTEST DAY IN THE FORECAST FOR ST
GEORGE AND ZION NATIONAL PARK ON MONDAY. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING
IS IN PLACE FOR MONDAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES UP TO 111 DEGREES WITH
LIMITED OVERNIGHT COOLING INTO THE UPPER 70S RESULT IN A MAJOR
(CATEGORY 3 OF 4) HEATRISK FOR THE AREA. ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH THE
WEAK SHORTWAVE INFLUENCE WILL JUST STALL THE WARMING TREND FOR
ANOTHER DAY, MAINTAINING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S, AND KEEP HEATRISK
IN CHECK, LIMITING TO MODERATE (CATEGORY 2 OF 4) ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH.
OTHERWISE, A SLIGHT INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO MONDAY
ALONG WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL BE ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE
COVERAGE OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN UTAH.
GIVEN THE OVERALL DRY ENVIRONMENT, THE MAIN HAZARD FROM ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WOULD BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND MINIMAL RAINFALL.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/6AM TUESDAY), ISSUED 425 AM MDT
RIDGING ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE AREA, THOUGH MAY SLIDE SOUTH
SOMEWHAT AS AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH. ANOTHER DAY OF
NOTABLY HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
WITH VALLEY FLOORS SEEING TEMPERATURES JUST SHY OF OR EXCEEDING
100F. ON WEDNESDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE
PASSED THROUGH WITH AN ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING THE
AREA AS WELL. GIVEN MEAGER MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAK
FORCING, LITTLE IS EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION, THOUGH IT
WILL "COOL" THE AREA DOWN BY AROUND 5 DEGREES.
MODEST MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH
PWATS GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND 0.5-0.7" ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
UT AND SOUTHWEST WY. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SPARK ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR TYPICAL HIGHER TERRAIN SPOTS
EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING IN PLAY. WITH HEIGHTS
BUILDING OVER THE FORECAST AREA, HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
AREAWIDE THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM WITH OUR VALLEY
LOCATIONS SEEING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S EACH DAY.
ADDITIONALLY, LOWER WASHINGTON COUNTY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES NEARING
AND PERHAPS EXCEEDING 110F EACH DAY. BE SURE TO DRINK PLENTY OF
WATER, LIMIT TIME IN THE SUN, AND DRESS APPROPRIATELY!
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LOW MAY DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST OF CA NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. CURRENT CONSENSUS IS THAT MORE ROBUST MOISTURE
COULD PUSH INTO SOUTHERN UT AS EARLY AS THURSDAY WHICH WOULD
INCREASE POPS TO JUST SHY OF 50% ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHERN
UT. THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN APPEARS TO LAST AT LEAST INTO SATURDAY
AND BEARS WATCHING GIVEN ITS MORE WIDESPREAD NATURE. UNFORTUNATELY,
NORTHERN UT AND SOUTHWEST WY APPEAR TO REMAIN QUITE DRY AS MOISTURE
QUALITY AND FORCING FURTHER NORTH LEAVE MUCH TO BE DESIRED IN THIS
SOLUTION.
AVIATION...KSLC
MINIMAL OPERATIONAL CONCERNS ARE FORECAST FOR
THE KSLC TERMINAL AS AFTERNOON NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REVERT BACK TO SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW AROUND 04Z. VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN FLOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
ANTICIPATED MONDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING.
FIRE WEATHER
MODEST MIDLEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA ON
MONDAY, BRINGING AN INCREASED THREAT OF HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, BUT THE THREAT OF GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING WILL EXIST NEAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
ON TUESDAY, WITH AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE (60% CHANCE) ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
UTAH. WHILE HUMIDITIES ABOVE 8000 FEET MAY MUCH MORE MARGINAL (IN
THE 15-20% RANGE), ELEVATION BANDS BELOW 8000 FEET WILL SEE RH
VALUES AS LOW AS 10%. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS RIGHT AROUND
THE 25-30 MPH THRESHOLDS NEEDED FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, SO EVEN IF TRUE RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT ACHIEVED,
IT WILL BE VERY CLOSE.
DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA BY LATE IN
THEE, INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR WETTING RAIN, THOUGH THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW ROBUST THE MOISTURE STREAM WILL BE.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR UTZ495>498.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM MDT MONDAY FOR UTZ123-
124.
WY...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...WORSTER
AVIATION...WEBBER
FIRE WEATHER...CHURCH
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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