724
FXUS65 KSLC 152209
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
409 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS
FOR NORTHERN UTAH AND SW WYOMING THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING A
THREAT OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS THAT COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS
50-60+ MPH. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN FOR TOMORROW WITH
MORE DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH A LOWER SEVERE THREAT. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AS A MORE MONSOON TYPE OF
PATTERN SETS UP.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z/6AM THURSDAY)
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS FOR NORTHERN UTAH AND SW WYOMING THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A TROUGH GRAZING NORTHERN UTAH WILL PROVIDE SOME ENHANCED
LIFT PAIRED WITH GOOD SHEAR AND DECENT CAPE PROFILES TO RESULT IN
SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE FROM WESTERN
UTAH TOWARDS THE WASATCH FRONT BETWEEN 6-8 P.M. CURRENTLY
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES SOME CIN ACROSS WESTERN UTAH THAT WILL NEED
TO BE ERODED BEFORE CONVECTION CAN MOVE THROUGH. CAMS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN UTAH. DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S WITH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE AREA WILL RESULT IN STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS.
IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO ORGANIZE ENOUGH AND CREATE A LARGE ORGANIZED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THEN THERE EXISTS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS
IN THE 50-60+ MPH RANGE. FOR AREAS ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH,
GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OF A BEAVER-BRYCE CANYON-LAKE POWELL LINE,
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND WINDY WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. A
COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE INTRODUCED TO THE AREA THANKS TO THE TROUGH
MOVING TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. MORE DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA TOMORROW, PRIMARILY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS TOMORROW, BUT DRY LOW LEVELS
WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS SENSITIVE AREAS
OF SOUTHERN UTAH UP TO THE SWELL AS STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAKER
TOMORROW THAT WILL ALLOW STORMS TO BE SLOW MOVING OR EVEN
STATIONARY, AT TIMES.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/6AM THURSDAY), ISSUED 347 AM MDT
AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW LOOKS TO MEANDER OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA,
SLIDING NORTH TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW WILL RESULT IN
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINNING THURSDAY RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN UT.
MODEST MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW MEANDERS TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN PWATS GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND 0.5-0.7"
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF UT AND SOUTHWEST WY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY, BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE HINTING
AT A CHANCE FOR PWATS RANGING FROM 1-1.2" ACROSS SOUTHERN UT
THURSDAY-SATURDAY. GUIDANCE HAS ALSO TRENDED TOWARD ADVECTING SOME
POCKETS OF HIGHER PWATS FURTHER NORTH WHICH MAY SERVE TO INCREASE
POPS AND INCREASE RAINFALL TOTALS LOCALLY. WITH THIS SETUP, SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPEAR POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN UT. WHILE DETAILS REMAIN DIFFICULT TO IRON OUT, IT BEARS
WATCHING.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW LOOKS TO DISSIPATE / PHASE INTO THE
MEAN FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD. FOLLOWING THIS, AN UPPER TROUGH LOOKS
TO DIVE SOUTH OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THIS COULD RESULT IN MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER NEAR THE END OF THE LONG TERM AND FOLLOWING,
THOUGH GUIDANCE STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION...KSLC
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT NORTHERLY AROUND 23Z AHEAD OF INCOMING THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH
ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 00-04Z. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND WITHIN THESE THUNDERSTORMS, AND SEVERE
WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 58MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT, THOUGH MORE
LIKELY WILL PEAK IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE TAF PERIOD, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR PERIODS
DURING STORM ACTIVITY.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
NORTHERN TERMINALS ARE LIKELY
TO BE IMPACTED BY THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 00-04Z. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND WITHIN THESE THUNDERSTORMS, AND SEVERE
WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 58MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT, THOUGH MORE
LIKELY WILL PEAK IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE TAF PERIOD, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR PERIODS
DURING STORM ACTIVITY. GUSTY WINDS AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS DIMINISH
AROUND SUNSET, WITH VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT KBCE EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST OF THE TERMINAL BY 00-01Z.
FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HOT AND RELATIVELY DRY NEAR
THE SURFACE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY ALONG WITH HIGH BASED
CONVECTION THAT WILL POSE THE THREAT FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. A TROUGH
GRAZING BY TO OUR NORTH IS BRINGING ENHANCED INSTABILITY AND LIFT
THAT WILL MAKE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVELS
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50-60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW. NON-CONVECTIVE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 20-35 MPH RANGE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, RED FLAG WARNING REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH.
MORE DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT NON-
CONVECTIVE WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
IMPROVED RH AS THE TROUGH BRINGS A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS INTO
THE AREA FOR TOMORROW. MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEK AS A
MORE MONSOONAL PATTERN TAKES SHAPE WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF A FOUR
CORNERS HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL CONVECTION
THROUGH SATURDAY.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ478-479.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ492-493-
495>498.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ277.
SHORT TERM...MAHAN
LONG TERM...WORSTER
AVIATION...VERZELLA
FIRE WEATHER...MAHAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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