008
FXUS65 KSLC 022151
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
351 PM MDT SAT AUG 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN UTAH THROUGH
THIS EVENING. A HOT AND VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)
EARLY AFTERNOON UPPER AIR AND
SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA AREA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CROSSING THE
GREAT BASIN AND SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE PACIFIC COAST.
CURRENT MESOANALYSIS INDICATES AN AREA OF 500-750 J/KG OF SBCAPE
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN UTAH. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND 25 KTS OR SO.
WITH VERY DEEP, DRY SUB-CLOUD ENVIRONMENT, ONGOING CONVECTION WILL
BE CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. AS OF PRESS TIME,
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE STRENGTHENING NEAR THE WEST SIDE
OF THE GSL. MULTIPLE MEMBERS OF THE HREF PROPAGATE THIS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LAKE AND INTO THE NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT,
MAINTAINING COHERENCY THROUGH AT LEAST THE TOWNS CLOSEST TO THE
LAKE.
NEAR SUNSET, ANY REMAINING CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND DIMINISH.
THIS WILL START AN EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LITTLE TO NO THREAT OF
CONVECTION...BUT MAINLY HOT, DRY AND SUNNY SKIES.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/6AM MONDAY), ISSUED 407 AM MDT
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON MONDAY, RESULTING
IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. H7 WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 25-30 KNOTS ON MONDAY, ALLOWING GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL COUPLE WITH
VERY DRY CONDITIONS TO CREATE HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON
MONDAY, MOST NOTABLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN, CENTRAL, AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF UTAH. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH QUICKLY LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY, ALLOWING A RIDGE TO BEGIN STRENGTHENING ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN US. A WEAK SURGE OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO RIDE UP THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE, BRINGING INCREASED
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THIS RIDGING PATTERN REMAINS STAGNANT. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
DURING THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF THE
PRECIPITATION AS LOWER LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY, WITH THE MAIN CONCERN
BEING GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE KSLC
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH STRONG NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS 30-40 MPH
BETWEEN 00Z- 03Z WITH DECREASING WINDS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING.
THESE WINDS COULD RESULT IN SOME BLOWING DUST WITH LOWER VIS
BRIEFLY. WINDS BECOME SOUTH BY 10Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. DECAYING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AIRSPACE WILL DEVELOP GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
THAT WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH 30-40 MPH NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WASATCH BETWEEN 22Z-03Z. GUSTY WINDS COULD RESULT IN
BLOWING DUST WITH BRIEFLY REDUCED VIS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN OVERNIGHT. CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AIRSPACE.
FIRE WEATHER
A HOT, DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SUNDAY, WINDS WILL
DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER...WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ONCE MORE. WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN UTAH. LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 479, ESPECIALLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH,
BUT LITTLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITIES IS EXPECTED FOR AREAS BELOW 8500
FEET OR SO. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH WILL REMAIN IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH POOR TO VERY POOR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR UTZ483-
484-488-489-492>498.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ483-484-488-
489-493-494-496-498.
WY...NONE.
KRUSE/WHITLAM/MAHAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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