555
FXUS65 KSLC 052107
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
307 PM MDT TUE AUG 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
A MILD AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
START TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BRINGING
SOME COOLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z/6AM THURSDAY)
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR
ANALYSIS SHOWS A STOUT RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS STRETCHED THROUGH THE
PACNW. LOCALLY, THIS IS RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF DEEP LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WHICH IN TURN IS YIELDING CONTINUED DRY AND
MODESTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS. THERE IS A SMALL AMOUNT OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE WORKING AROUND THE RIDGE INTO SOUTHERN UTAH, BUT
THIS IS RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. TO THAT END, ANALYZED PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND 0.2" TO 0.4",
SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE MORE OR LESS ZERO TODAY. THANKS IN
PART TO YESTERDAY'S WEAK BOUNDARY THAT GOT NUDGED INTO THE AREA
AND A BRIEFLY FLATTER RIDGE FROM THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE,
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMAL. AREA.
MOVING INTO WEDNESDAY, THE FORECAST PATTERN SHIFTS MINIMALLY. H7
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN INCREASE, AND IN TURN AFTERNOON HIGHS
NUDGE UPWARDS TO AROUND 5F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL. CURRENTLY, NBM
CARRIES A 40% CHANCE TO HIT OR EXCEED 100F AT KSLC WEDNESDAY,
WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. GIVEN THE RELATIVE WARMTH ELSEWHERE AS
WELL, THOSE SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS WILL WANT TO BE SURE TO STAY
HYDRATED AND HAVE A MEANS TO TAKE BREAKS AND COOL OFF. OTHERWISE,
BIGGEST CHANGE IS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL UTAH, WITH PWAT VALUES PUSHING MORE INTO THE 0.5" TO
0.7" RANGE. WHILE STILL PRETTY MEAGER, THIS MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT
TO TRIGGER SOME WIDELY ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN.
WITH ANYTHING THAT DOES FORM, WOULD EXPECT A GUSTY OUTFLOW WIND
THREAT FOR AREAS IN VICINITY GIVEN THE HIGH BASED NATURE. WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE STILL QUITE LOW OVERALL, DON'T ANTICIPATE MUCH
CHANCE AT ANY MORE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/6AM THURSDAY), ISSUED 400 AM MDT
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY
TO THURSDAY. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE
SOUTHEAST, WHILE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND UTAH. AN INCOMING LONGWAVE TROUGH
WILL TRACK INTO THE PACNW THURSDAY, WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE BRINGING GUSTY WINDS. THEREFORE, THE
GREATEST WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS OF THE WEEK WILL BE THURSDAY FOR
SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND MUCH OF UTAH. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 5-15%, WITH SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 25-40 MPH. RED FLAG WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR MANY
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE DAY.
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL ONLY GRAZE SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND UTAH,
BUT COME CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A DRY COLD FRONT TO TRACK IN. THAT
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN UTAH LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY
FRIDAY, THEN STALL IN SOUTHERN UTAH LATER FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL
BE DRY, BUT IT WILL RESULT IN MUCH LIGHTER WINDS COMPARED TO
THURSDAY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF IT. FOR SOUTHERN UTAH, WHERE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE, AND FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN UTAH,
WHERE DOWNSLOPE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
GUSTY, HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE. VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL AROUND 5-10F NORTH OF THE FRONT, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 80S FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 90F AT CEDAR CITY AND IN
EXCESS OF 100F FOR LAKE POWELL AND LOWER WASHINGTON COUNTY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND UTAH FOR
THE WEEKEND AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH LIFTS AND THE RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST RETROGRADES INTO THE WESTERN U.S. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR ALL BUT SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT RIDGING WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF
THE WESTERN U.S. INTO THE WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING AND DRY
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION...KSLC
WINDS WILL CONTINUE CLOCKING AROUND TO
NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL. AROUND 03-04Z, DRAINAGE FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH
GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS OCCURRING AT THE TERMINAL. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF UT AND SW WY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS / SMOKE ACROSS SOUTHERN UT. GUSTY SW'ERLY
WINDS GREATER THAN 20KTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL
SITES, TAPERING OFF SOON AFTER SUNSET WITH DIURNAL FLOWS TAKING
PLACE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TOMORROW WITH SLIGHTLY
GUSTIER WINDS OUT OF THE SW WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS ALL
SITES.
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL BUT
NORTHWESTERN UTAH THROUGH THURSDAY AND THROUGH CENTRAL/EASTERN
UTAH ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY, AFTERNOON RH WILL BE QUITE LOW IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS STATEWIDE THROUGH THE WEEK.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN THANKS TO A MODEST INCREASE IN
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH THIS MOISTURE, A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN
SOUTHERN UTAH ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE GRAZES NORTHERN UTAH, WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH A DECENT PORTION OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH. BEHIND THIS
FRONT, WINDS WILL WEAKEN, THOUGH AS THIS FRONT STALLS OVER CENTRAL
UTAH, BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL TO EASTERN UTAH ON FRIDAY, RESULTING IN ANOTHER DAY
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DECREASE HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND STATEWIDE, WITH OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY
PERSISTING.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR UTZ479.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR UTZ492-495-497.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR UTZ481>484-488-489-
493-494-496-498.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ277.
SHORT TERM...WARTHEN
LONG TERM...WILSON
AVIATION...WORSTER
FIRE WEATHER...CUNNINGHAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page