681
FXUS65 KSLC 061003
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
403 AM MDT WED AUG 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
A MILD AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
START TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BRINGING
SOME COOLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY)
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER UTAH THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO. UPSTREAM, A CLOSED LOW IS NOTED OVER THE
CENTRAL BRITCOL COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER TODAY AS
HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY, WITH AFTERNOON MAXES 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS, AND SOME NORTHERN UTAH SITES PUSHING THE
100F MARK (SLC HAS A 42% CHANCE OF REACHING THAT TODAY).
OTHERWISE, BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE COMMON AGAIN
TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH.
MIDLEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST UTAH TODAY,
WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO REACH 0.85 INCHES NEAR LAKE POWELL. THIS
MOISTURE WILL BRING A FEW HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN
VALLEYS TODAY. GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVELS, APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS
NOT EXPECTED, WITH THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE SHOWERS BEING GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS. THE MOISTURE INFLUX WILL ONLY BE TEMPORARY, AS
DRIER AIR WILL START SPREADING BACK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
WINDS INCREASE MORE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW DIVES INTO THE PACNW AND THE ASSOCIATED
TROUGH APPROACHES UTAH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON GIVEN EXCELLENT MIXING. THE TROUGH WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN
UTAH TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/6AM FRIDAY)
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL GRAZE
SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND UTAH TO THE NORTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
FRONT WILL BE A DRY BOUNDARY, BUT IT WILL BRING MODERATE COLD AIR
ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES AT 700 MB WILL COOL FROM ROUGHLY 15-18C
THURSDAY FOR SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND NORTHERN UTAH TO ROUGHLY 7-10C
FRIDAY. THAT WILL CORRESPOND TO A COOL DOWN FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY
OF AROUND 10F, FROM MID AND UPPER 90S FOR VALLEYS TO MID TO UPPER
80S.
THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF UTAH AS THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH LIFTS. WARM, DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20-35 MPH WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. RED FLAG WARNINGS CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY FOR SOUTHERN UTAH. RED FLAG WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR
EASTERN UTAH AS WELL, INCLUDING LOCATIONS WHERE THE FRONT WILL TRACK
THROUGH, AS POST-FRONTAL DOWNSLOPE WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
UTAH AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY ENHANCE FIRE DANGER.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE
A CHILLY START FOR SOME LOCATIONS, INCLUDING THE CACHE VALLEY AND
UINTA COUNTY, WYOMING, WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S.
HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY THROUGHOUT, AROUND 5-10F COOLER THAN
NORMAL FOR SOUTHWEST WYOMING AN ALL BUT SOUTHERN UTAH. LAKE POWELL
AND LOWER WASHINGTON COUNTY WILL HAVE HIGHS OF 100-105F.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL RETROGRADE AND PHASE
INTO A RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. THAT WILL BRING
A WARMING TREND, PARTICULARLY FOR SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND NORTHERN
UTAH WHERE THE STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE FROM THE COLD
FRONT. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BE DRY AND WARM, BUT THERE WILL BE
LIGHTER WINDS COMPARED TO WHEN THE RIDGE WAS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A
PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS ENHANCED BY AN UPSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH.
LARGELY, IF NOT TOTALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL LAST INTO THE WEEK.
MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING THROUGH
STARTING MONDAY THAT COULD BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THESE WOULD BE MORE CAPABLE OF GUSTY, ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS THAN
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION...KSLC
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AROUND 15Z
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL THEN TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST
AROUND 19Z WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
WIND DIRECTION FROM ROUGHLY 20-03Z, AS SOUTHWEST FLOW INTERACTS WITH
THE LAKE/UPVALLEY NORTHWEST FLOW. MOST LIKELY, WINDS WILL RANGE FROM
W/SW TO W/NW, COMMONLY VARYING IN DIRECTION. GUSTS WILL PREVAIL
AROUND 20 KNOTS MUCH OF THAT TIME. CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL LAST INTO
THE AFTERNOON, WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS BUILDING IN AROUND 21Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL LAST THROUGH AROUND 15Z. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR MOST LOCATIONS WILL INCREASE AFTER 15Z, WITH
GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS THROUGH 00Z. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL
TRANSITION TO SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.
FIRE WEATHER
A WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. A BRIEF INCREASE IN
MIDLEVEL MOISTURE TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH WILL BRING A FEW
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A THREAT OF
GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN VALLEYS BEFORE DRIER AIR
SPREADS BACK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND EAST WILL ALSO RESPOND TO THE BRIEF MOISTURE PLUME WITH A
SLIGHT RISE TODAY, BUT OVERALL, AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL REMAIN BELOW 15% WITH GENERALLY POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA INTO LATE WEEK. BREEZY SURFACE WINDS
WILL COMBINE WITH THE LOW HUMIDITIES TO CONTINUE TO BRING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ENTER
NORTHERN UTAH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING
ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
TREND WEAKER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHILE TEMPERATURES TREND
COOLER.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR UTZ479.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR UTZ492-495-497.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR UTZ481>484-488-489-
493-494-496-498.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ277.
CHENG/WILSON
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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