563
FXUS65 KSLC 062049
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
249 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
A HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHERN UTAH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE STALLING, BRINGING
DECREASING WINDS BY THE WEEKEND AND A NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN
TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z/6AM FRIDAY)
THE PERSISTENT PATTERN OVER
THE AREA CONTINUES, WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO
AND A TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES, UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING REMAIN
UNDER A HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW. A SMALL AMOUNT OF
HIGH BASED MOISTURE HAS TRICKLED IN FROM THE SOUTH, JUST ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
ACROSS THE AREA, MAXES ARE AVERAGING AROUND 5F ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY SLIDE ITS WAY OVER
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUING TO INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF IT. NOT ANTICIPATED WINDS TO
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 40 MPH EXPECTED, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
WIDESPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF
THE AFD FOR MORE DETAILS.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/6AM FRIDAY), ISSUED 403 AM MDT
A LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL GRAZE SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND UTAH TO THE NORTH
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE A DRY BOUNDARY, BUT IT
WILL BRING MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES AT 700 MB
WILL COOL FROM ROUGHLY 15-18C THURSDAY FOR SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND
NORTHERN UTAH TO ROUGHLY 7-10C FRIDAY. THAT WILL CORRESPOND TO A
COOL DOWN FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY OF AROUND 10F, FROM MID AND
UPPER 90S FOR VALLEYS TO MID TO UPPER 80S.
THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF UTAH AS THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH LIFTS. WARM, DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20-35 MPH WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. RED FLAG WARNINGS CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY FOR SOUTHERN UTAH. RED FLAG WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR
EASTERN UTAH AS WELL, INCLUDING LOCATIONS WHERE THE FRONT WILL TRACK
THROUGH, AS POST-FRONTAL DOWNSLOPE WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
UTAH AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY ENHANCE FIRE DANGER.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE
A CHILLY START FOR SOME LOCATIONS, INCLUDING THE CACHE VALLEY AND
UINTA COUNTY, WYOMING, WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S.
HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY THROUGHOUT, AROUND 5-10F COOLER THAN
NORMAL FOR SOUTHWEST WYOMING AN ALL BUT SOUTHERN UTAH. LAKE POWELL
AND LOWER WASHINGTON COUNTY WILL HAVE HIGHS OF 100-105F.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL RETROGRADE AND PHASE
INTO A RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. THAT WILL BRING
A WARMING TREND, PARTICULARLY FOR SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND NORTHERN
UTAH WHERE THE STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE FROM THE COLD
FRONT. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BE DRY AND WARM, BUT THERE WILL BE
LIGHTER WINDS COMPARED TO WHEN THE RIDGE WAS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A
PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS ENHANCED BY AN UPSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH.
LARGELY, IF NOT TOTALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL LAST INTO THE WEEK.
MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING THROUGH
STARTING MONDAY THAT COULD BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THESE WOULD BE MORE CAPABLE OF GUSTY, ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS THAN
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION...KSLC
WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE VARYING
BETWEEN WSW AND NW THROUGH ABOUT 01Z AS STRONG VALLEY SOUTHWEST FLOW
INTERACTS WITH THE LAKE/UPVALLEY NORTHWEST FLOW. GUSTS WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL AROUND 15-20 KNOTS MUCH OF THAT TIME, UNTIL DIMINISHING
BETWEEN 01-02Z AS AN EARLY DIURNAL SHIFT TO SE KICKS IN AROUND 02-
03Z. CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
GUSTY SOUTHERLY/SW WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER 01Z. ASIDE FROM AREAS OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CLOUDS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN, MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
A HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN OVER UTAH THROUGH THURSDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL EXIST TO
BRING THE THREAT OF A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER
TOMORROW, WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ANTICIPATED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS STAYS HOT AND VERY DRY. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
STALLING OVER CENTRAL UTAH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AREAS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL SEE DECREASING WINDS, BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVER
PARTS OF EASTERN UTAH, RESULTING IN CONTINUED CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR UTZ479.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR UTZ492-495-497.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR UTZ481>484-488-489-
493-494-496-498.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ277.
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...TRAPHAGAN
LONG TERM...WILSON
AVIATION...VERZELLA
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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