923
FXUS65 KSLC 071111
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
511 AM MDT THU AUG 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN
OVER UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING TODAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE STALLING,
BRINGING DECREASING WINDS BY THE WEEKEND AND A NOTICEABLE
DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z/6AM SATURDAY)
HOT AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW RESIDES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS MORNING, DOWNSTREAM
FROM AN UPPER LOW SETTLING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW STRETCHES FROM
SOUTHWEST MONTANA BACK INTO NORTHEAST NEVADA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH LATE TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE EFFECTIVELY STALLING OUT ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH FRIDAY.
INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
I-80 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND COMBINED WITH THE HOT AND
VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD
SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT, TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH ON
FRIDAY, WHILE HOT, DRY AND BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
PERSIST TO THE SOUTH OF THE STALLING BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN UTAH.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/6AM SATURDAY)
A GRAZING LONGWAVE TROUGH
TO THE NORTH WILL HAVE TRACKED DOWNSTREAM BY SATURDAY. FOLLOWING
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE, SATURDAY
MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK FOR SOUTHWEST
WYOMING AND MOST OF UTAH. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S FOR THE
CACHE VALLEY AND UINTA COUNTY, WYOMING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S FOR MANY OTHER LOCATIONS IN UTAH. LIGHTER NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL BUT SOUTHERN UTAH WHERE THE FRONT WILL
HAVE MUCH LESS OF AN AFFECT. THERE WILL BE LIGHTER, BUT STILL
GUSTY, SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR THAT PORTION OF THE STATE. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE LIGHTER FOR MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE FRONT, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF DOWNSLOPE AREAS IN EASTERN UTAH, WHERE FIRE DANGER
WILL STAY HIGH WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. VALLEY
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN NORTHERN
UTAH, WHILE SOUTHERN UTAH VALLEY TEMPERATURES GET INTO THE 90S,
WITH 100-105F AT LAKE POWELL AND FOR LOWER WASHINGTON COUNTY.
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST SUNDAY,
WHILE A STRONG RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST RETROGRADES INTO THE WESTERN
U.S. AND PHASES INTO RIDGING IN PLACE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
THAT WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND UTAH,
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN UTAH, WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN
THE 90S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL BE WITH A RIDGE TO THE WEST, WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE LIGHTER
WINDS. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY LATER IN THE WEEK ON THE TRACK OF
A LONGWAVE TROUGH POSSIBLY INTO THE WESTERN U.S. ENSEMBLES RANGE
FROM THE SYSTEM SLIDING INTO WESTERN CANADA TO DIGGING INTO THE
PACNW. THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WOULD GRAZE SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND
UTAH, LIKELY RESULTING IN STRONGER WINDS. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK,
IT COULD BRING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND PUSH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THOSE WOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR HIGH-BASED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION...KSLC
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 19-
20Z, ALTHOUGH VARIABLE DIRECTIONS ARE LIKELY FROM 10-15Z.
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS, WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS, WILL LAST FROM 19-
20Z THROUGH 00Z. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 03Z.
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL LAST THROUGH AROUND 15Z. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AROUND 15Z, WITH STRONG GUSTS FOR MANY
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 35-45 KNOTS ARE LIKELY FOR
SOUTHWEST WYOMING. GUSTS OF 25-40 KNOTS ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF UTAH,
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN SOUTHERN UTAH. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
WILL LAST THROUGH 18Z, WITH SCATTERED OR BROKEN CLOUDS AFTER 18Z.
FIRE WEATHER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY, AND COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL RESULT IN WIDESPEAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS MAY EXCEED 40 MPH AT TIMES
ACROSS FAVORED PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST UTAH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
NORTHERN UTAH LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, USHERING IN A COOLER
AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS FOR FRIDAY. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT THE VERY
DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY,
WITH VERY POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY BELOW 30 PERCENT EXPECTED
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH MAINLY EAST OF I-15,
AND WITH THE VERY DRY AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG INTO SOUTHERN UTAH SATURDAY, AND
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
UTAH AGAIN SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, A COOLER BUT DRY AIRMASS WILL
SETTLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. ANY MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
UTZ478-479.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ492-495-497.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR UTZ481>484-488-489-
493-494-496-498.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ277.
SEAMAN/WILSON
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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