386
FXUS65 KSLC 250951
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
351 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BRINGING
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BIGGEST RISKS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING, AS WELL AS GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MUCH DRIER BY THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY)
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED
JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA THIS MORNING, WITH A MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER UTAH IN THIS MONSOONAL PATTERN.
LATEST PWAT ANALYSIS HAS 1-1.1 INCHES OVER NORTHWEST UTAH AND
BETWEEN 0.8-1.0 INCH ELSEWHERE ACROSS UTAH. NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN UTAH, AND CAN EXPECT SOME TO REMAIN IN PLACE AFTER
SUNRISE.
THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT MUCH OF THE SAME AS YESTERDAY WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS STORMS TREND
INCREASINGLY WET, THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
SHOULD THE STRONGER STORMS MOVE OVER PRONE AREAS. TOMORROW COULD
SEE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS PWATS MAX OUT.
ADDITIONALLY, MODELS INDICATE A WEATHER DISTURBANCE LIFTING SOUTH
TO NORTH ACROSS WESTERN UTAH, PROVIDING ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC SUPPORT
FOR SHOWERS. THERE IS A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE TIMING OF THIS
DISTURBANCE, HOWEVER. THE FASTER SOLUTIONS WILL HAVE THIS
DISTURBANCE CLEARING SOUTHERN UTAH BY MIDAFTERNOON, AND THIS
COULD MEAN THAT CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN UTAH MAY BE SUPPRESSED
DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.
OTHERWISE, WITH THE MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER, AFTERNOON
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATED, WITH MAXES TODAY
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, COOLING FURTHER TO AROUND 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TOMORROW. THAT IS NOT SO MUCH THE CASE
FOR OVERNIGHT MINS, HOWEVER, WHICH WILL BE 3-8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL OWING TO NIGHTTIME CLOUD COVER.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/6AM WEDNESDAY)
A GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ATOP LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A DRYING TREND
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF THE
WEEK. HOW QUICKLY THE AIRMASS DRIES IS WHERE THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY
LIES IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST, WITH SOME GUIDANCE QUICKLY MIXING
THIS MOISTURE OUT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH BY WEDNESDAY,
WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE MAINTAINS DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S
STATEWIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY DRYING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IN THE ABSENCE OF AN EXCHANGE OF
AIRMASSES SUCH AS WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT, MORE OFTEN THAN NOT
MOISTURE TENDS TO LINGER LONGER, PARTICULARLY WITH A MOISTURE-RICH
AIRMASS SUCH AS THE ONE WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AS SUCH THE IDEA OF KEEPING POPS ELEVATED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA, FOLLOWED BY
A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SEEMS REASONABLE.
IN FACT, WEDNESDAY COULD END UP BEING AN ACTIVE FLASH FLOOD DAY
ASSUMING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES IN FACT REMAIN, AS STORM MOTIONS
WOULD TEND TO MOVE CONVECTION INTO PRONE DRAINAGES INCLUDING
CAPITOL REEF, THE SAN RAFAEL SWELL, AS WELL AS THE GRAND STAIRCASE
AND GLEN CANYON REC AREAS.
THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE
WEEK DESPITE THE DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. MAX TEMPS WILL RUN 5-8
DEGREES BELOW CLIMO THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY WARMING HEADING
INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AVIATION...KSLC
PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT
THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS
MORNING SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE 19-20Z TIMEFRAME.
THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM SPREADING OFF THE OQUIRRHS
AND IMPACTING THE TERMINAL DURING THE 22-04Z TIMEFRAME, ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LIGHTNING.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
TODAY, WHICH MAY IMPACT AREA TERMINALS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS,
LIGHTNING, AND POTENTIALLY MVFR TO BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY WITHIN
HEAVIER RAINFALL. AWAY FROM THESE STORMS, VFR CONDITIONS WITH
TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MIDWEEK, BRINGING DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF MOSTLY WET THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. THE MOISTURE WILL THEN MAX OUT ON
TUESDAY, AND ALONG WITH A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE LIFTING ACROSS
WESTERN UTAH, PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
WIDESPEAD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. HUMIDITIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
PEAK ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY, THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND. HOWEVER, WITH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
IN PLACE, SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
BE STRONG AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WETTING RAIN. THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE,
AND BY THE WEEKEND, EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL,
TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION. AS THE MOISTURE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA,
EXPECT HUMIDITIES TO TREND LOWER AGAIN, WITH AFTERNOON MINS IN THE
TEENS FOR MANY VALLEY AREAS BY SATURDAY, ALONG WITH GRADUALLY
RISING TEMPERATURES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
CHENG/SEAMAN
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