412
FXUS65 KSLC 262207
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
407 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
A MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE WILL CONTINUE, WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND MUCH
OF UTAH WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL BE CAPABLE OF FLASH FLOODING,
PARTICULARLY OF SLOT CANYONS, DRY WASHES, AND BURN SCARS. STRENGTH
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND ON DESTABILIZATION,
LARGELY RELATED TO CLOUD COVER.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z/6AM THURSDAY)
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND
UTAH. THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE INCLUDED AN EMBEDDED MCV, WHICH
TRACKED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. FOR SOUTHERN UTAH,
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EARLY LEAD TO STABLE CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. PARTIAL CLEARING HAS ALLOWED FOR LIMITED
DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING, THEN
DIMINISH LATE.
THE MCV TRACKED INTO NORTHWEST UTAH THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH MOSTLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AS IT TRACKS FURTHER
NORTH, IT WILL APPROACH THE RIDGE AXIS AND SLIDE EASTWARD. HI-RES
MODELS INDICATE THE REMNANT MCV WILL TRACK INTO THE URBAN
CORRIDOR OF NORTHERN UTAH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN FROM ROUGHLY OGDEN, NORTH TO THE IDAHO BORDER.
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL LOWER THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND
UTAH WEDNESDAY AS SYNOPTIC FLOW TRANSITIONS TO THE WEST. THE MOST
DRYING WILL BE IN SOUTHERN UTAH. STILL, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY
WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER NORTH.
ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE DRIER, THEY WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL. HREF
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE NARROW, SKINNY CAPE PROFILES OF ROUGHLY
250-500 J/KG THAT OFTEN INDICATE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR HEAVY
RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1 INCH. WIND SHEAR
THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER WILL BE LOW, AROUND 20 KNOTS. SIMILAR TO
RECENT, A LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE CLOUD COVER, BUT THESE
INGREDIENTS SUGGEST WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IF THESE TRACK
INTO VULNERABLE LOCATIONS OR IF TRAINING OCCURS, FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE AN IMPACT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-15F COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR SOUTHWEST
WYOMING AND UTAH WEDNESDAY AS BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS AND
HIGHER THAN NORMAL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/6AM THURSDAY), ISSUED 413 AM MDT
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WITH RISING HEIGHTS THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DRY EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND
INITIALLY, REMAINING 5-8F BELOW CLIMO THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SLOWLY
TRENDING WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO SUPPORT
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.
THESE WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH WHERE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS,
WHILE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
ACROSS THE SOUTH. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL AGAIN SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY, WITH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WANING DUE TO THIS
SLOW DRYING TREND. BY SATURDAY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
LARGELY ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AVIATION...KSLC
AREA SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
AROUND THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD TO SEE THESE VIS REDUCTIONS
WILL BE FROM 22Z TO 01Z, WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE ISOLATED
THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL PREDOMINANTLY BE FROM THE SOUTH, HOWEVER,
DIRECTIONS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE AS SHOWERS PASS. THERE IS ABOUT A
40% CHANCE OF SEEING ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING AS SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. WITHIN HEAVIER SHOWERS,
REDUCTION TO MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO VIS
RESTRICTIONS ALONGSIDE GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS. AREAS OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A FOCUS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
UTAH.
FIRE WEATHER
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES
TO ADVECT MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO UTAH. A WAVE WITHIN THE MOISTURE
SURGE TRACKING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IS CONTRIBUTING TO SHOWERS FOR
MUCH OF THE STATE. WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS, THERE HAS NOT BEEN
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS,
BUT RATHER LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS. COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH SOME,
PARTICULARLY THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN UTAH, INTO WEDNESDAY.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL HAVE
SOME LIMITING FACTOR ON CONVECTION, BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF UTAH THROUGH THE DAY.
THESE WILL BE CAPABLE OF WETTING RAIN, WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MORE LIKELY WITH MORE DESTABILIZATION.
CONDITIONS WILL TREND DRIER FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE
MONSOONAL SURGE DIMINISHES AND DRIER CONDITIONS BUILD IN.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ113-117>119-121-
123>126-128>131.
WY...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WILSON
LONG TERM...SEAMAN
AVIATION...WEBBER
FIRE WEATHER...WILSON
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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