024
FXUS65 KSLC 272145
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
345 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TODAY. A DRYING TREND WILL
THEN RESULT IN A DECREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD RISK CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
UTAH, CASTLE COUNTRY, THE SAN RAFAEL SWELL, WESTERN CANYONLANDS,
AND CAPITOL REEF THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
* A DAY-TO-DAY DRYING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND WILL BRING A DECREASING TREND IN DAILY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE, WITH ANY STORMS BECOMING MORE TIED TO
THE TERRAIN WITH TIME.
* TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND WILL THEN MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL VALUES NEXT
WEEK.
THIS AFTERNOON, MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH THE HIGHEST PW VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH WITH
VALUES TO AROUND 1 TO 1.1 INCHES. MEANWHILE, SUBTLE DRYING IS
WORKING INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH WITH PW VALUES TRENDING DOWN TO AROUND
0.8. HOWEVER, DESPITE THE SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN UTAH, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH MANY
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 50S CONTRIBUTING TO CAPE VALUES OF 250
TO 500 J/KG. THIS CAPE/PWAT COMBINATION PLACES US GENERALLY ON THE
LOWER END OF THE THERMODYNAMIC SPACE FOR FLASH FLOODING, BUT THE
RECENT WETTING RAINS AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ALREADY IN PLACE
MEANS THAT EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES ARE POSSIBLE ON ALREADY
WET SOILS IN THE AREA, WHICH IS HELPING RAISE THE RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING SLIGHTLY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE EASTERN BASINS SUCH AS CASTLE COUNTY, THE SAN RAFAEL SWELL,
WESTERN CANYON LANDS AND CAPITOL REEF INTO THIS EVENING.
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THE LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR CONTINUED SLOW DRYING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, DAILY
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY, WITH THE BEST DRYING MOVING INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WHICH WILL FINALLY LARGELY SHUT DOWN THE DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN TIME FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO START TO TREND CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES LATER IN THE
WEEKEND AND INTO LABOR DAY AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL START TO RETURN BY MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD EARLY IN THE WEEK STARTS TO DRIFT
A BIT MORE EASTWARD. THE BEST MOISTURE AXIS WITH THIS RIDGE
PLACEMENT WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA KEEPING US ON THE FRINGE OF
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE.
AVIATION...KSLC
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH, BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
LAST THROUGH AROUND 09Z. NEARBY SHOWERS WILL BRING MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BRING VARYING WIND DIRECTIONS, BUT
PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH AROUND 03Z.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE LIKELY AFTER 03Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY FOR SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND NORTHERN UTAH,
WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE ISOLATED AFTER 03Z, BUT SHOWERS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH AROUND 09Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF UTAH, BUT
BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT,
BUT THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS WILL PEAK AROUND 30-40 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
MONSOON MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS UTAH, WHICH WILL BE
EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. THUS ANYWHERE WHERE STRONGER
STORMS TRACK WILL HAVE A HIGH CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING WETTING
RAINFALL AGAIN TODAY, ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD RISK.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIMITED OVER FAR SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN UTAH WHERE DRIER AIR IS ALREADY STARTING TO WORK
ITS WAY INTO THE AREA, WHICH WILL BECOME THE TREND ACROSS THE
ENTIRE STATE THROUGH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
IN THE WAKE OF THE MONSOON SURGE, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. WHILE RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY, THE
DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE TEENS RETURNING THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS, THE DAILY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL TREND LOWER AND BECOME MORE CONFINED TO
THE TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND WARMER THIS WEEKEND,
RETURNING TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTING ANY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO WEEK AS WINDS
APPEAR TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ120-121-129-130.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...CHURCH
AVIATION...WILSON
FIRE WEATHER...CHURCH
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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