003
FXUS65 KSLC 280944
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
344 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
A GENERAL DRYING TREND WILL RESULT IN A DECREASING
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE INTERRUPTED BY A BRIEF INCREASE IN MOISTURE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH.
SHORT TERM (AFTER 12Z SATURDAY)
A WEST-SOUTWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
IN PLACE OVER UTAH THIS MORNING, HELPING TO SPREAD DRIER AIR INTO
THE AREA. LATEST PWAT ANALYSIS HAS BETWEEN 0.9-1 INCH OVER
NORTHERN UTAH, WITH 0.6-0.7 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN UTAH, AND VALUES
IN BETWEEN THOSE ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH. WITHIN THE POCKET OF
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH, LINGERING INSTABILITY HAS
MAINTAINED A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT, BUT THESE SHOULD MOSTLY WIND
DOWN BY SUNRISE.
WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE, AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL SEE MORE
LIMITED COVERAGE TODAY, AND STORMS SHOULD BE LESS INTENSE. WHILE
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD STILL PRODUCE DECENT RAINFALL
RATES AND AMOUNTS, THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND ASSOCIATED
FLOODING SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED.
A BRIEF BLIP IN THE DRYING TREND IS NOTED TONIGHT, WHEN REMNANTS
OF WHAT IS NOW POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JULIETTE BECOMES ABSORBED
INTO THE MEAN FLOW AND EJECTS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO
SOUTHERN UTAH. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BACK TO GENERALLY
BETWEEN 0.9-1.2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
UTAH TONIGHT. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED, SO
PRECIPITATION SHOULD MANIFEST AS GENERALLY BROAD STRATIFORM RAIN.
HOWEVER, LOCALLY MODERATE RAIN FALLING IN THE WRONG AREAS COULD
STILL RESULT IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES, GIVEN THE MANY RAIN-SENSITIVE
AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH JULIETTE SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE SOME
AFTERNOON CONVECTION, WITH LIMITED HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES, WHILE GRADUALLY TRENDING WARMER, WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AFTERNOON MAXES WILL
BE 6-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY, WARMING SLIGHTLY TO 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TOMORROW.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/6AM SATURDAY)
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH INTO UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS, WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE DRYING
CONDITIONS, WITH SOLAR INSOLATION AND PWATS STILL ONLY A SMIDGE
BELOW NORMAL, EXPECT CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH. AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE, TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE BACK TO AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER-
80S/LOW-90S ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT AND NEAR 100F IN ST. GEORGE.
NEXT WEEK, MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS SOME SORT OF MODEST INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AROUND THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD, MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT BASIN FROM THE SOUTH, WITH THE BEST MOISTURE LIKELY REMAINING
TO OUR WEST...AT LEAST THROUGH DAY 7. SO, WHILE THIS MOISTURE SURGE
WON'T BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS THIS PAST WEEK, THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, DRY MICROBURSTS, AND/OR FLASH FLOODING STILL EXISTS.
AVIATION...KSLC
LIGHT, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES. WINDS WILL LIKELY
TRANSITION TO NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 17-18Z. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER 20Z, MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, WITH A VERY LOW CHANCE OF MVFR VIS IF A
ROGUE HEAVIER SHOWER MAKES IT OVER THE TERMINAL.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LARGELY LIGHT AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN
WINDS OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON, LIKELY LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN
(AND THE UT-NV BORDER AFTER 22Z). MVFR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
FIRE WEATHER
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN,
THEY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AND
WILL HAVE A SMALLER POTENTIAL FOR WETTING RAIN. TONIGHT, A BRIEF
INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED FOR SOUTHERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL UTAH AS REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM EJECTS ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO SOUTHERN UTAH, BRINGING AN AREA OF LIGHT
TO POTENTIALLY MODERATE RAIN. MOST OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE OUT OF
UTAH BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. OVER THE WEEKEND, MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED, AND ANY SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED AND CONFINED
TO NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
FALL INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S FOR MOST VALLEY AREAS THIS
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO GRADUALLY TREND WARMER INTO THE
WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH NOT REACHING CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS UNTIL SUNDAY
FOR MOST AREAS. NEXT WEEK, A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
BRING INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BACK TO THE AREA.
HOWEVER, WETTING RAIN CHANCES WITH THESE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN LOW.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
CHENG/CUNNINGHAM
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