709
FXUS65 KSLC 282123
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
323 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
REMNANT TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL YIELD FAVORABLE MOISTURE
SURGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
UTAH. OTHERWISE, EXPECT A GENERAL DRYING AND WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z/6AM SATURDAY)
A DEEPER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IS HELPING AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. STILL, ANALYZED PWAT VALUES SIT
COMFORTABLY IN THE 0.6" TO 0.8" RANGE OR SO, PLENTY SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT GIVEN DIURNAL
HEATING AND ENHANCED UPPER JET SUPPORT ALOFT. DESPITE THE OVERALL
ENHANCED FLOW HIGHER ALOFT, LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW IS MEAGER, IN TURN
RESULTING IN FAIRLY SLOW STORM MOTIONS. AS SUCH, WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND KEEP AN EYE ON ANY CONVECTION THAT TRIES
TO DEVELOP IN OR SLIDE TOWARDS A RAIN SENSITIVE BASIN.
WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TREND DOWN THROUGH THE EVENING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST REGION, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE MAINTAINED IF NOT INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
UTAH. THIS IS COURTESY OF A SURGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE JULIETTE WHICH WILL EJECT THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING ON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, PUSHING
PWAT VALUES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1.00". GIVEN THIS'LL BE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, LACK OF INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MOST
OF THE RESULTING PRECIPITATION STRATIFORM TO SHALLOW CONVECTION
GENERALLY. IN TURN, EXPECT RAIN RATES TO GENERALLY BE LIGHT TO AT
TIMES MODERATE, POSING A LOWER BUT NON-ZERO THREAT TO ANY OF THOSE
TYPICAL RAIN SENSITIVE BASINS.
FOLLOWING THE EJECTION OF JULIETTE, FRIDAY WILL SEE DEEP FLOW
SHIFT MORE WESTERLY ACROSS THE AREA AND RESTART THE GRADUAL DRYING
TREND. STILL, WILL SEE AT LEAST ONE LAST DAY WITH PWAT VALUES
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST,
WHICH WILL IN TURN SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AS DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY.
NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, BUT WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON ANYTHING THAT DRIFTS INTO A RAIN SENSITIVE BASIN,
SO HAVE MAINTAINED "POSSIBLE" RATINGS IN THE LOCAL FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL RATING FOR SOUTHERN UTAH RECREATION AREAS. OTHERWISE,
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL SEE THE START OF A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS INCREASING A DEGREE OR TWO IN
COMPARISON TO THURSDAY.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/6AM SATURDAY), ISSUED 344 AM MDT
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE DRYING CONDITIONS, WITH SOLAR
INSOLATION AND PWATS STILL ONLY A SMIDGE BELOW NORMAL, EXPECT
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH. AS
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE, TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BACK
TO AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER- 80S/LOW-90S ALONG THE
WASATCH FRONT AND NEAR 100F IN ST. GEORGE.
NEXT WEEK, MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS SOME SORT OF MODEST INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AROUND THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD, MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT BASIN FROM THE SOUTH, WITH THE BEST MOISTURE LIKELY
REMAINING TO OUR WEST...AT LEAST THROUGH DAY 7. SO, WHILE THIS
MOISTURE SURGE WON'T BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS THIS PAST WEEK, THE
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS, DRY MICROBURSTS, AND/OR FLASH FLOODING
STILL EXISTS.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE KSLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH ONLY A SMALL (20% CHANCE) OF A BRIEF
SHOWER MOVING OVER THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
FOR THE ENTIRE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED WEAK
AFTERNOON CONVECTION FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AIRSPACE WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN AIRSPACE OVERNIGHT BRING LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN AND
LOWERED CIGS, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. LIGHT AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS AREAWIDE.
FIRE WEATHER
REMNANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A MONSOONAL PATTERN
WILL LINGER AND RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY, A REMNANT
TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL EJECT THROUGH THE REGION, RESULTING IN
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL UTAH. MOISTURE WILL THEN REMAIN SUFFICIENT
FOR ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. FROM THE WEEKEND ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING BECOMES BETTER CENTERED OVERHEAD, RESULTING IN A DRYING
AND WARMING TREND. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY, PRIMARILY ALONG HIGH TERRAIN IN SOUTHERN UTAH, BUT
COVERAGE WILL BECOME MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD THAN THAT OF PRIOR
DAYS. MODELS THEN SUGGEST AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE BY MIDWEEK WILL
RESULT IN A CORRESPONDING INCREASE TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES ONCE
AGAIN.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WARTHEN
LONG TERM...CUNNINGHAM
AVIATION...MAHAN
FIRE WEATHER...WARTHEN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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