687
FXUS65 KSLC 102159
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
359 PM MDT WED SEP 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WEST
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. GUSTY, DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO WESTERN UTAH TODAY. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT NORTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH THIS
EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM
LURKING NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...A WEAKENING, BUT STILL ROBUST, UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS WELL OFF TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CREEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
KEY MESSAGES AND IMPACTS:
- STRONGER WINDS WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS THE EASTERN AND FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF UTAH ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL REMAIN
BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AND WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
- GRADUAL COOLING IS EXPECTED ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS COOLER TEMPERATURES FILTER
INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY FRIDAY.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH/
SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND CENTRAL UTAH ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FAVORED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND ADJACENT VALLEY AREAS.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION, THE AREA OF STRONGEST
WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY.
THOUGH EASTERN UTAH WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THURSDAY,
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH... FALLING SHORT
OF ANY HEADLINE ISSUANCE. A BREEZY DAY NONETHELESS. THESE STRONG
WINDS WILL PAIR WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY BETWEEN 15 TO 20 PERCENT
AND GENERATE GENERALLY WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, COOLER OVERHEAD TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
FILLING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, LEADING TO THE START OF
A COOLING TREND ACROSS UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR, TO SLIGHTLY BELOW, NORMAL.
MOISTURE WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF
UTAH TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH THE ADDED DYNAMICS FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AIDING IN SUPPORT FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TO
PERSIST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN THEN, COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AND WILL NOT POSE A
WIDESPREAD THREAT.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WEST FRIDAY, THE BEST FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN UTAH, THE WESTERN UINTAS, AND THEN TO THE EAST OF THE
CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY HOWEVER, WITH
THE WASATCH FRONT SITTING SOLIDLY IN THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
(AROUND 5 DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMAL).
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPACT
THE AREA. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RANGING FROM NEARLY OVERHEAD
TO AS FAR NORTH AS MONTANA. IMPACTS TO THE CWA WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION...KSLC
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON, PRIOR TO DECREASING RAPIDLY AFTER 00/01Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
FOR THE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL TREND TO DECREASE AFTER 00/01Z.
FIRE WEATHER
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST OF UTAH HAS INTRODUCED
A SWATH OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
UTAH ALONGSIDE CRITICALLY DRY MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
THESE STRONG WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND SUNSET, THEN SUBSIDE THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS WINDS WEAKEN AND HUMIDITY BEGINS TO
RECOVER. AS THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES ITS SLOW EASTWARD
MARCH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN REGION THE AREA OF STRONGEST
WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT EASTWARD. FOR THURSDAY, THE AREA OF
STRONGEST WINDS WILL EXIST IN UTAH'S EASTERN VALLEY AREAS, AS WELL
AS A PORTION OF SOUTHWESTERN UTAH. THOUGH PEAK WIND GUSTS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH IN THESE AREAS,
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT
RANGE. FOR SOME AREAS, ISOLATED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST WITHIN A MORE WIDESPREAD AREAL COVERAGE OF ELEVATED TO
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND,
A GRADUAL COOLING AND MOISTENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CREEPS INTO UTAH. CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN UTAH WILL INCREASE
THROUGH SATURDAY, FAVORING RAINFALL OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THAT SAID, CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS WILL STILL BE IN THE 15 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE. AT THE VERY LEAST, WE'LL SEE AFTERNOON MINIMUM
HUMIDITY INCREASING TO AROUND 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR THE LOWER
VALLEYS AND TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATION VALLEYS
AND MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ478-492.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ115-122.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WEBBER
AVIATION...MERRILL
FIRE WEATHER...WEBBER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page