531
FXUS65 KSLC 152139
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
339 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MEANDER ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH
THROUGH TUESDAY, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR
RAIN RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM (AFTER 12Z/6AM WEDNESDAY)
AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY MEANDER EAST ACROSS NORTHERN UT TODAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN UT AND SOUTHWEST WY ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST AS THE BASE OF THE LOW FLATTENS
AND UPPER SUPPORT WEAKENS LEADING TO WEAKER ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA.
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, THE LOW BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND EJECT
EAST SOMEWHAT FASTER WITH A SLIGHT UPPER ENHANCEMENT NOTED IN HI-RES
GUIDANCE WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN UT AND SOUTHWEST WY IN THE MORNING HOURS,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WASATCH FRONT, UINTAS, AND UINTA COUNTY WY.
A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR IN THE MID AFTERNOON TUESDAY
BEFORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP PRIMARILY OVER THE UINTAS
AND SOUTHWEST WY AS THE TRAILING WAVE OF THE LOW TRAVERSES ACROSS
THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RUN AROUND 5F BELOW
NORMAL.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/6AM WEDNESDAY), ISSUED 357 AM MDT
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EXIT EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO UTAH, BRINGING A VERY DRY AIR MASS AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
NEARLY ZERO ACROSS MOST AREAS, THOUGH A WEAK TRAILING WAVE FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED EXITING TROUGH COULD RESULT IN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE UINTAS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, THIS DRY PERIOD WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA, RESULTING IN ANOTHER MOISTURE SURGE. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MAGNITUDE AND EXTENT OF THIS MOISTURE,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN UTAH WHERE ENSEMBLE
MEAN PWAT IN ST. GEORGE REACHES 1.00" BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER
AREAS OF THE STATE CAN EXPECT AT LEAST A MODEST INCREASE IN
MOISTURE, THOUGH ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS HIGHER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH AT LAST
SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN DECREASES GREATLY LATER IN THE
WEEKEND, WITH ONE MAIN QUESTION BEING HOW LONG ACTIVE WEATHER WILL
STICK AROUND. THUS, POPS REMAIN FAIRLY LOW FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE
KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH MIDDLE AND HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUD COVER INCREASING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE
WILL BE A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE
AIRFIELD BETWEEN 06-16Z, BUT WOULD BRING MINIMAL IMPACTS. OTHERWISE,
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WITH ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
AFTER 06Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, WITH NORTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREA
(~KSVR NORTHWARD) AFTER 03Z. AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IS
ANTICIPATED TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN UTAH/ SOUTHWEST WYOMING EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER, VFR CONDITIONS AND CIGS ABOVE 7KFT AGL ARE
EXPECTED. FOR THE SOUTHERN AREA ANY GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER
SUNSET AND RETURN TO LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SLOPE FLOWS THEREAFTER.
FIRE WEATHER
A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY GRAZING NORTHERN UTAH WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MEANDER EAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. FOR
INTERESTS ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCES TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WASATCH FRONT AND
THE UINTAS. BEST CHANCES FOR A WETTING RAIN APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE EASTERN UINTAS. ON WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY
EXITS EAST WITH A GRADUAL DRYING AND WARMING TREND ACROSS UT AS A
RESULT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO PUSH
INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS
MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AS SUCH, PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN
TO SEE AN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, LIKELY
PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE
AREA.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WORSTER
LONG TERM...CUNNINGHAM
AVIATION...WEBBER
FIRE WEATHER...WORSTER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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