427  
FXUS65 KSLC 021024  
AFDSLC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT  
424 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
A CLASSIC FALL STORM WILL BRING GUSTY, SOUTHERLY WINDS  
TO WESTERN UTAH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD WILL CROSS THE STATE FRIDAY  
INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS  
THE NORTHERN HALF OF UTAH NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH  
SATURDAY. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE FALL SEASON CAN BE  
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
A CLASSIC FALL STORM SYSTEM IS IN THE FORECAST AS WE  
BEGIN THE MONTH OF OCTOBER. EARLY MORNING UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE  
ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST. AN  
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENT NEARING THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST.  
MEANWHILE, THE TROPICS REMAIN ACTIVE WITH TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE  
AND ANOTHER AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER TO THE EAST WITH A 90%  
CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.  
 
TODAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY, WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE  
REGION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE  
NORMAL...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN UTAH.  
 
BY FRIDAY MORNING, THE TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN  
GREAT BASIN. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE  
UTAH/NEVADA BORDER BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS STRONG  
COLD FRONT, EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. CURRENT ENSEMBLE  
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AROUND A 40% CHANCE FOR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA  
(GUSTS GREATER OR EQUAL TO 45 MPH FOR 3 OR MORE HOURS) ACROSS  
WESTERN UTAH, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80 AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. NO WIND  
HEADLINES ARE PLANNED ON THIS SHIFT.  
 
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO WESTERN UTAH BY FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON, AND REACH EASTERN UTAH FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY  
NIGHT. EXPECT A THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF EASTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN UTAH EAST OF THE WASATCH  
FRONT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SBCAPE VALUES NEAR  
500-1000 J/KG WILL COMBINE WITH SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER SHEAR (AT  
OR ABOVE 50 KTS) TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. GIVEN DEEP  
MIXING AND A DRY SUBCLOUD ENVIRONMENT, EXPECT THE THREAT OF WIND  
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH WITH STRONGER CONVECTION. THE STORM  
PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED THIS AREA WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR  
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF  
UTAH NEAR AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY.  
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO CUT-OFF TO THE WEST SATURDAY  
MORNING, THE COLDEST 700MB TEMPERATURES (AROUND -1 TO  
-4C) WILL ARRIVE. THIS WILL BRING SNOW LEVELS AS LOW AS 8500 FEET  
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH, WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 9000  
FEET. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS ABOVE 8500-9000 FEET THIS WEEKEND  
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR WINTER CONDITIONS.  
 
700MB FLOW WILL SHIFT WEST TO NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON,  
ENHANCING OROGRAPHIC PROCESSES FOR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ACROSS  
NORTHERN UTAH. A WIDESPREAD 0.50-1.00" OF PRECIPITATION IS  
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH (LARGELY FROM  
NEPHI NORTH, AMOUNTS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE SOUTH OF NEPHI, WITH  
LITTLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-70). LOCALLY HIGHER  
AMOUNTS UP TO 1.50" OR SO ARE LIKELY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN  
FAVORED IN WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.  
 
I DON'T WANT TO GET ANYONE'S HOPES UP TOO MUCH. SNOW TOTALS ABOVE  
ABOUT 9000 FEET WILL RANGE FROM 1-5 INCHES, WITH A 20% CHANCE OF  
UP TO 8 INCHES IN THE MOST FAVORABLE AREAS IN NORTHWEST FLOW.  
DAY SHIFT WILL COORDINATE WITH TRANSPORTATION PARTNERS...BUT  
EXPECT ANY ROAD-RELATED ISSUES TO BE RELEGATED TO STILL OPEN HIGH  
ELEVATION SEASONAL ROADS. NO PLANS FOR ANY WINTER HEADLINES ON  
THIS SHIFT.  
 
PRECIPITATION WILL LARGELY COME TO AN END SATURDAY EVENING AS UTAH  
SETTLES IN TO WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ONCE AGAIN. AFTER A  
CHILLY DAY SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES  
BELOW NORMAL...SOME VALLEYS WITH ONGOING LATE SEASON AGRICULTURE  
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW 32 DEGREES BY SUNDAY MORNING.  
THIS INCLUDES THE SANPETE AND SEVIER VALLEYS AS WELL AS OUTLYING  
AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN UTAH LIKE ENTERPRISE AND BERYL JUNCTION. IT  
IS TOO EARLY TO ISSUE FREEZE WATCHES, BUT DEPENDING ON MODEL  
TRENDS, FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO CONSIDER POTENTIALLY ADDING  
HEADLINES FOR THESE AREAS.  
 
FOR THOSE WITH FROST SENSITIVE AGRICULTURE, AREAS OF SOUTHERN UTAH  
COUNTY NEAR SANTAQUIN AND SPANISH FORK MAY SEE FROST SUNDAY  
MORNING AS WELL AS THE RUSH VALLEY AND AREAS NEAR CASTLE DALE.  
AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE THAT ARE AT THREAT OF FREEZING WILL ALSO BE  
HIGHER THREAT FOR FROST.  
 
THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST TROUGH STRETCHED TO THE  
WEST WILL GRADUALLY CUT-OFF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE BAY  
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. UTAH WILL LARGELY REMAIN DRY DURING THIS  
PERIOD. EVENTUALLY THIS CUT-OFF LOW WILL EJECT ACROSS THE GREAT  
BASIN BY MID TO LATE WEEK, BUT THE SOLUTION SPACE IS VARIED IN THE  
TIMING AND OUTCOME FOR THE REGION. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.  
 

 
   
AVIATION...KSLC
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE KSLC  
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL  
CONTINUE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BRIEFLY TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT  
NORTHERLY WINDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
   
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST  
FOR THE ENTIRE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS AND  
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING DURING  
THE DAY.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
A CLASSIC FALL STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT  
THE BEEHIVE STATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR TODAY, EXPECT A  
WARM, DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR 10  
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES WESTERN  
UTAH FRIDAY, EXPECT STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP.  
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN UTAH,  
PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF I-80. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS FROM WEST TO  
EAST ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  
 
NEAR AND BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT, WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS  
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF UTAH. VALLEY RAIN AND  
ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOW ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET IS EXPECTED NORTH  
OF ABOUT I-70. SOUTH OF I-70, PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAPIDLY  
DECLINE. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT  
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, NEAR 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS  
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH.  
 

 
   
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
UT...NONE.  
WY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
KRUSE/MAHAN  
 
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY  
 
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